Not only is a life-or-death battle going on on the Ukrainian battlefield, but high-ranking Russians are also fighting each other inside the Kremlin. Important players in this shadow play are Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russian mercenary army chief Wagner Group, Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu, and Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov who also fights with his Caucasian militias in Ukraine. “It’s three factions; Kadyrov, Prigozhin and the Gerasimov club of old conservatives».
As mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s star has grown in recent months, so has opposition to him from Russia’s military leadership. For example, on January 12, Putin replaced the commander of Russian troops in Ukraine Sergey Surovikin (aka General Armageddon) with Valeri Gerasimov. Surovkin is a hard-line Syrian veteran who is on good terms with Prigozhin, while Gerasimov is once again best friends with Minister Shoygu, Prigozhin’s rival.
Separation of spirits
Even at a lower level, the shuffling of the dolls indicates a power struggle, thinks De Wijk. He gives the example of the pro-Wagner General of the Airborne Troops Teplinsky through Lieutenant General Oleg Makarevich. ‘Teplinsky didn’t like the decision to deploy airborne troops around Bachmoet, he wanted to deploy ground troops to support Wagner. He sees that a division of minds between those who support Shoigu and Gerasimov and Prigozhin is beginning to emerge in the General Staff.’
“At the same time you see that Prigozjon is cornered by the Ministry of Defence. He is not even mentioned when it comes to the conquest of the villages around Bachmoet. Bachmut’s conquest will not be the success Prigozhin predicted, which will serve to deprive him of the enormous power he possesses.’
Rolling down the street
Both factions publicly battle their animosity. When the new commander Gerasimov announced disciplinary measures for Russian soldiers (such as clean-shaven appearance, haircut and standard uniforms, ed), he was publicly mocked by Prigozhin who argued that wars are won by brave men and not so much by men clean shaven. Prigozhin also publicly blamed Gerasimov for ammunition shortages during the fighting for the Ukrainian salt city of Soledar (calling Gerasimov a “faggot”), and complained that regular army generals at Soledar “claimed victory “.
The clean-shaven appearance also offended the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov (who holds the third highest position in the Russian army in the rank of colonel general). Kadyrov and his militia of Islamic fighters are fighting a religious battle, wearing a beard is an expression of religious devotion.
Warlords
Kadyrov and Prigozhin aren’t the only ones with private militias. Minister Shoygu also has a private army, Patriot, which has been fighting in Ukraine since 2014, as well as Redut, the private army of oligarch Gennady Timchenko that he founded to protect his company’s gas field. Gas giant Gazprom also announced on February 7 that it would create its own private military company.
According to observers, the Kremlin is leaving the Wagner Group alone so that the Russian military can abdicate responsibility for excessive troop or territory losses or war crimes. Prigozhin recently announced that the Wagner Group is no longer recruiting in prisons. In his words because he has enough men, but according to observers he may have been cut short by the Ministry of Defence.
According to a British political analyst, both a former KGB officer and a Russian oligarch say Prigozhin was deliberately portrayed as a bogeyman. As a warning to those thinking about regime change: if Putin leaves, things will get even worse.