Bauer notes that Russia’s latest attacks on Ukraine follow a consistent pattern. “They are attacking Ukraine with massive amounts of missiles about every two weeks, and I think this attack fits that pattern. So I’m still not convinced that this is the long-awaited offensive.’
The rocket attack on Ukraine has caused power outages in large parts of the country. Explosions were also heard in the Ukrainian capital Kiev. The city of Zaporizhia suffered the most from the attack, which is said to have come under the heaviest missile attack since the start of the war.
Bauer notes that Russia is having difficulty organizing an offensive. “They have a lot of trouble mobilizing, arming and training people. It therefore seems a bit early for an offensive. (…). You also need more than one missile attack. Troops capable of following up are needed, because in the end Russia wants to conquer the Ukraine and replace Zelensky’s regime.
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Russians have moral problems
But it’s not that far yet, Bauer thinks. They will prepare for it, but Russia has suffered many losses. More than 100,000 soldiers are estimated to have died. Also, they have trouble finding ammunition and there are morale problems among the Russian soldiers. It’s different with the Ukrainians, who are fighting for their survival.’
On Thursday, the renowned American think tank Institute for the Study of War has already stated that the offensive in the Luhansk province has begun. It would involve 75,000 Russian soldiers. The governor of the province also specifies that the offensive has already started.