In total, 75,000 Russian soldiers are currently pressuring the Donbass region. According to Colonel Han Bouwmeester, the fact that Russia seems to be in a hurry with the offensive has to do with the fact that it wants to bring forward the delivery of Western weapons. ‘Only in retrospect can we tell if this is the expected big offensive. But it has something to do with it», thinks Bouwmeester, who is also a professor of military strategy.
“The offensive won’t start until spring”
“A few weeks ago the secret services were still talking about the offensive that would only arrive in late spring, towards summer. But this has already happened much earlier, because Russia does not want to wait for Ukraine to be reinforced with all the promised Western equipment.’ However, Bouwmeester wonders if Russia is fully booked at the moment. “If you look at what’s happening: attacks are taking place along the entire length of the Donbas, there is still heavy fighting in Bachmut and in the south in Donetsk.”
Yet Bouwmeester sees that the fiercest battle is currently going on in Luhansk province. “That is one of the provinces that Russia has said it has annexed. But a small part in the West is not yet in Russian hands. So we are talking about the first line of Svatove-Kreminna. There is very heavy fighting there at the moment,’ according to Bouwmeester. “There are three divisions and one tank regiment. You have to think of ten thousand fighting soldiers, 150 tanks per division and 300 fighting vehicles.’
“Not at full combat power”
However, the Colonel holds a shot in the arm. “Two of these divisions have been in combat for some time and are no longer at full strength. One of the divisions was moved from Belarus to Luhansk only last January to launch this offensive. The tank regiment consists of nearly 120 tanks and 2000 combat soldiers. With this, Russia wants to conquer all of Luhansk and subsequently attack the last part of Donetsk from the north.”