According to Krijger, Zelensky knows perfectly well that three things are of vital importance to him: Western weapons and ammunition, maintaining sanctions against Russia, and attention. He must prevent his case from falling into the Western list, as happened previously with Yemen and Syria. Now there are those earthquakes, news is a fleeting product. “His greatest fear is that at some point the West will have had enough and that he will be pushed to the negotiating table.”
Move things
Krijger thinks Zelensky is also acutely aware that things are changing in the United States: Not only is there a Republican majority in the House of Representatives with a clear America First agenda, but Democrats are also increasingly seeing war as something the sign European it should be. ‘Although the economy is doing well there, it still affects people on low and middle incomes. They think “rightly that this is a European war.”
If Biden runs for president again, he’s unlikely to witness it tone of voice in the Union State, then its internal agenda is the most important. Moreover, in matters of foreign affairs, China dominates all other issues on the international agenda of the United States. China is truly existential for the United States. So for both Republicans and Democrats, the continuation of the war and the reconstruction of Ukraine is really a European thing.’
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Globally, Ukraine may also be concerned in terms of public support. According to Krijger, one third of the world’s population supports the Western hard line towards Russia, one third is pro-Russian (Russia’s old allies and China) and one third belongs to the so-called non-aligned countries such as India and Indonesia. The latter group, which is mainly located in the southern hemisphere, is looking forward to the end of the war, but according to Krijger, in the event of an escalation, they will side with Russia.
“Russians are huge in Africa, it’s naive of us to think that the whole world is against Russia.” Krijger therefore does not rule out the possibility that this preference translates into the UN. “Even at the UN level, the massive support that was there for Ukraine at the start of the war will decline, which is worrying.”
Prospect
Krijger sees support as inextricably linked to perspective. ‘If you ask for support, ask for a reason. You have to sketch something from perspective, and one possible scenario is not so nice: that’s a protracted war.’
There is now unanimous support for support for Ukraine; “You see it in the sanctions, in the arms deliveries, in the moral support.” But that can change. For example, when Russia manages to conquer the whole Donbas. Or if Ukraine manages to recapture most of it. “Then I wouldn’t be surprised if Scholz, Macron and Erdogan (who has elections ahead of him and therefore has something else on his mind besides Ukraine) say they need to talk.”
Listen to the full conversation here
And Zelensky will refuse because he first wants to drive the Russians out of all of Ukraine. According to Krijger, an uncomfortable situation therefore arises. “And it will come.” And then the Italians, the Greeks and the Balkans and in the end even France and Germany will turn around and ask for negotiations, thinks Krijger. “So I fear the time will come when Zelensky will be pushed to the negotiating table. That’s why he comes to Bussel, he also sees that things can change.’
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