“Of course we hope every time Putin finally renounces that war,” said Over de Linden, who also specializes in European Union sanctions against Russia. “But it won’t happen. However, this is a useful measure.’
The diesel ban is the second part of the oil embargo agreed by the European Union. Over de Linden points out that oil is extremely important to Russia, and the embargo will therefore be seen as very annoying.
Diesel
Russians will find the diesel ban even more annoying, thinks Over de Linden. “We started with the ban on unrefined oil on December 5 and it now includes refined oil,” he says. “Together, this is a huge source of income that Russians are missing out on.”
Over de Linden is supported by energy expert Lucia van Geuns of the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague. You argue that the dent in Russia’s income is a direct consequence of the import ban. “And it’s not just the import ban that has an effect on Russia’s income,” says Van Geuns. “The price caps imposed by the G7 and Australia are also having an effect, meaning the amount of profit Russia gets from exporting oil and derivatives is well below what the market would otherwise pay.” .
17 percent
A Finnish think tank calculated that in January alone, Russia has 17% less revenue from the oil sector than in December. “All in all, it makes an impact,” Van Geuns continues. He also points out that Russia still earns a lot of money from oil exports: 640 million euros a day. “But it is much less than in the first half of 2022. Back then it was more than 1,000 million euros a day”.
Van Geuns therefore dares to conclude that EU oil sanctions actually have an effect on Russia. ‘I was initially less optimistic about it, but the price cap in particular is a problem. Russians still earn from exports, but only much less.”