Arms deliveries can be safely called a hot topic in the war. Ukraine keeps asking for planes, but the West holds back. According to former Ambassador Ron Keller, who was stationed in Ukraine, Russia and Turkey, the West would do well to carefully consider any form of procurement. “We ask ourselves every day whether a weapons supply is needed,” Keller says. “And if it also involves employability. You can’t just ship any gun to another country.’
Furthermore, according to Keller, it is important to consider any possible reaction from the Russians. “You also see that there is a certain gradualism in increasing these deliveries,” he concludes. There is always a compromise to be made. Keller believes the pros and cons need to be examined “sharply.”
Nothing is sure
He also points out that the attitudes of Biden and the West regarding aircraft deliveries could change. Especially if you look at the beginning of the war, when military support from the West still consisted of helmets and flak jackets. “It can keep slipping,” he says. “Had it been the other way around, it would have been much worse.”
The big question, however, is whether the weapon deliveries will arrive on time. Military experts constantly talk about the start of a major offensive on February 24, when the war officially lasts a year. Keller himself thinks something is really going to happen after winter. “Both from the Russian and Ukrainian sides,” he says. “The current situation is unlikely to be the final situation.”
Clear goals
According to Keller, it is impossible to say exactly what the final situation will be, even if the goals are clear for both countries. “The Russians want to ‘liberate’ the four oblasts, and the Ukrainians want to take every Russian out of their territory,” Keller said. So that in and of itself is not a big deal. We will have to wait for the offensive.’
Despite the lack of a major offensive, the war continues to take casualties every day on both sides. According to Keller, this could lead to a reconsideration of the fighter aircraft decision.
To educate
However, if the West decides to supply fighter aircraft, Ukrainian pilots must be trained to fly such a Western aircraft. Keller has a possible solution for this as well. “It is very likely that an interim solution will be found first, in which the Russian planes – which are still on NATO territory – will be transferred to Ukraine,” predicts Keller. ‘And that countries like Poland, Romania and Bulgaria will get new F-16s. And also a quiet time to train their pilots for it. Ukrainian pilots can actually fly Russian MiGs, but not F-16s.”