According to retired Lieutenant Colonel Patrick Bolder, the fact that it would affect 500,000 Russian soldiers is credible. According to Ukraine, some 350,000 Russian soldiers are now fighting in their country. In September, 300,000 Russians have already been called to fight, of which about half have already been deployed. That means there are actually around 500,000 soldiers, concludes Bolder, who is affiliated with the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague.
While the first round of Russian mobilization didn’t go very well, a second wave of mobilization is still a possibility. ‘It is becoming increasingly difficult for (young) men to leave the country. This means that the next round of mobilization will result in fewer rejections, but you have to ask yourself what will be the motivation of these people. But they will have to be there.’
February
It’s a race against time, says Bolder. “The Russians want to bring forward deliveries of heavier Western weapons, but Ukraine wants to buy time. The best Ukrainian units are being withdrawn where possible so that they can be better trained for a counter-offensive.”
Defense Minister Reznikov of Ukraine voiced his suspicions about a new Russian offensive around February 24 during a visit to France on French television.
The Russians will feel something on February 24, the minister said. Let’s not underestimate our enemy. Officially, Moscow has announced a mobilization of 300,000 men. “But when we see troops at the borders, we estimate there are many more,” Reznikov told a French news channel.
He still hopes that Ukraine’s western allies will supply fighter planes, despite US President Biden’s “no” to sending F-16 fighter planes. “It’s a no for today, not for tomorrow,” said the defense minister. He takes into account that the United States is changing its mind.