For example, migrant workers who want to leave Russia would be stopped at the Kyrgyz border because their names are on the mobilization lists. Furthermore, the Kremlin’s rhetoric is becoming increasingly vicious: Western arms deliveries to Ukraine are being compared to the Holocaust. “They create a gloomy picture,” says Hammelburg.
According to the British, it is clear that Russia is busy calling more people. It is unclear how many men are involved. “The numbers range from 100,000 to 500,000 men, but that has major consequences for Russian society,” says Hammelburg. “It will encounter great difficulties and will have to switch to a war economy. This makes the so-called action in Ukraine a real war.”
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Rush
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky said his army needed new weapons quickly. “He’s right about that,” says Hammelburg. “They’re firing, literally, incredible amounts of ammunition that can’t be delivered fast enough.”
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Western tank delivery should also be faster. “It will be heard.” According to Hammelburg, German Leopard 2 tanks are available, the only problem is crew training. “You can speed it up, from maybe two months to maybe four or six weeks. This is already a victory for Zelensky, in view of the dreaded spring offensive.’ The offensive could begin around February 24, one year after the Russian invasion.