“What you see in these figures is that China ended 2022 extremely weakly, and 2023 started extremely weakly as well,” says De Jong. “And you can see it immediately in the forecasts, which have already been adjusted down left and right.”
Volume
The numbers are remarkable, thinks De Jong. “The value of exports is almost ten percent lower than a year ago, but it was still more than 18 percent in July.” It should also be noted that these are figures in value. “Prices have gone up, everything is getting more expensive and that means volume is going down even faster.”
China’s trade with the US fell by 20%, while trade with the EU fell by 18%. Trade with Russia, on the other hand, increased, with an 8 percent increase.
According to De Jong, there are several factors for this. “Due to the many lockdowns, domestic production is limited and that also means fewer exports. But if you read the comments, another factor actually dominates. Foreign demand for Chinese goods has dropped sharply. This is due to the approaching recession or slowing growth elsewhere. But in the end, this says more about world trade than the Chinese economy alone.”
Netherlands
The implications of this for the Dutch economy are not yet clear. This is still a show away from their bed for now, but that could just change. We don’t have December trade data yet, but industrial production has also declined sharply in recent months. And it also indicates a weakening of the global economy, we will notice that too, but not as strongly as China.’
IMF
The International Monetary Fund calls China’s performance “deeply disappointing”, but urges the country to continue to reopen the economy. According to the IMF, the transition from a zero-covid policy to a more normal operation is likely to be the most important driver of global growth this year.
“The most important thing is for China to stay on track, not shy away from reopening,” said IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva, who visited China last month for the first time since the start of the pandemic. “If they stay on track, China will make a positive contribution to average global growth by mid-year,” Georgieva said.