Where the Philippines was still quite supportive of China under former President Duterte, the tables are very different under his successor Marcos junior. “Since he took office, he has opened up a lot of lines to the Americans,” says Sinologist Ardi Bouwers. “Marcos junior is trying to find a balance between strengthening ties with the United States, maintaining good relations with ASEAN countries and maintaining good relations with China.”
Accidents
The two countries now regularly disagree over who is allowed to do what in the South China Sea. For example, there are incidents of Filipino fishermen being driven off islands by the Chinese on which they build ports and airports. “In times of typhoons, those fishing boats want to hide behind some of those islands, and that’s getting harder and harder,” Brouwers says. The new communication line should prevent such conflicts from escalating in the future.
According to Bouwers, China has been working for years to fully reclaim the South China Sea. As a result, the Philippines feels disadvantaged and in 2016 proved their right to the Arbitration Court in The Hague. “The Philippines is therefore very strong from an international legal point of view. Duterte traveled to Beijing shortly after that ruling and received large investment commitments. Something like 24 billion has been promised by China, but little has materialized in recent years. So now Marcos junior starts again».