international community
China and Russia will not be able to let each other go in their fight against the West. Not even India wants to burn its hands because it sees itself as the leader of the so-called ‘non-aligned countries’.’
According to De Wijk, we will have to wait for a battlefield victory, which is theoretically possible for both sides as long as sufficient weapons and ammunition are provided. “Otherwise, the fight will remain stalled as it is now and that will eventually have to be a condition for a ceasefire and possibly negotiations.”
Negotiations
Rumors have circulated in recent weeks that both sides are open to negotiations. In theory, this is not being implemented, and a large number of weapons are still going to Ukraine and Russia. ‘Ukraine is a leader in the quality of weapons and the fighting spirit of the soldiers. But the point is that there are much more Russians than Ukrainians and this is a big problem. Ukraine’s mobilization potential is much less.’
Mobilization
Putin indicated a few months ago that he would mobilize around 300,000 Russians. ‘So far around 150,000 troops have been deployed around the city of Bachmut (Donbas) mainly to ensure the Ukrainians go no further. Meanwhile, the other half will be trained to deliver the real battle later. Part of that group is also expected to be deployed to Bachmoet to take over the Donbass region. Furthermore, there are reasonable indications that the Russians will try to retake the capital Kiev.’
Arms shipments from the United States
‘If that happens, Ukraine will have to receive a lot of weapons from the Americans to counter the attacks of the Russians, but the arsenals in the United States are also running out a bit. If Russia cannot win this, it will be largely due to the incompetence of Putin and his generals. It really could go either way.’