«It could be a Christmas idea, but it is above all rhetoric. Russia makes such exorbitant demands as a condition that negotiations with Ukraine are effectively impossible.’ For example, Russia does not want to talk about the annexed areas in Donbass, nor about Crimea.
Ukraine, on the other hand, is talking about a peace summit in February, but only if Russian leaders and Putin answer before an international tribunal. “And I don’t think that will happen, certainly not before February.”
Bachmoth
At the same time, the fighting around the town of Bachmoet is getting worse. According to Wijninga, the fights resemble a matter of prestige. Bachmut is on his way to a part of Donetsk that is still in Ukrainian hands. If the Russians want to control even that last part in the northwest of the province, they will have to go through Bachmoet. And they don’t always manage to do it, and this costs many casualties on both sides.
The fact that Russia coûte que coûte wants to take possession of this part of Donetsk characterizes the actions of the Russian military. Both in this and in previous wars. Russia does not avoid many casualties on its side to achieve an important goal. They sacrifice their own people. The goal is to take possession of the entire Donbass and which includes the remaining part of the Donetsk province.
Tension on the border with Belarus
Tension is also rising on the border between Ukraine and Belarus. Soldiers are exercising there and this certainly causes concern in Kiev, even if there is a logical explanation behind it. ‘On the one hand, this has to do with the overcrowding of training capacities in Russia itself. They are overcrowded due to the large number of recruits who have been recalled,’ says Wijninga.
But on the other hand, there may be more, because parallels can be drawn with the beginning of the war in February of this year. “There are signs that preparations are underway for more than an exercise.” Like putting winter camouflage on army vehicles and setting up a field hospital, it can give the impression that something is imminent from Belarus, meaning Ukraine is beefing up troops on the border.
Wijninga sees similarities to a year ago, but is cautious. “Then field hospitals and blood banks were also set up, a clear sign that something was about to happen.” But Western observers and intelligence services still see no signs that anything is about to happen. To keep the threat up there may also be a way to keep Ukrainian soldiers on the border with Belarus so they can’t be deployed elsewhere.”
Support for Putin
Despite the large losses on the Russian side, Vladimir Putin still seems to have enough support among the people. Polls still show that about 70 percent of the population supports it. There is little movement among the citizens, the opposition is divided. The possibility of deposing Putin would have to come from within, and I don’t think it will happen anytime soon.”