Between the Kreminna and the Swatova, in particular, the attacks of the Ukrainian army continue, a clear sign that an attempt is being made to force a breakthrough. “It can be seen that the Russians are worried about a breakthrough, as reinforcements for the troops are arriving.”
Big consequences
The consequences of a Ukrainian breakthrough in this region could be major, says Wijninga. “If this breakthrough is achieved, the Ukrainian military will be able to penetrate further into Luhansk province, which is actually completely in Russian hands.” According to Wijninga, Ukraine does not want to give the Russians a break and continue to put them under pressure. “It’s in their interest to keep the Russians busy so they can’t build themselves up by sending in new recruits and equipment.”
From a strategic point of view, a breakthrough in this area could also have consequences for the border region with Belarus, as the pressure would remain on both armies at different points. This may be a deliberate strategy by Russia. By keeping the Ukrainian military committed to that border with a relatively small force, so it cannot be deployed elsewhere.
Unrest in Kherson
Even in Kherson, in southern Ukraine, things remain unresolved. Rockets and grenades are constantly fired there, while the strategic importance for Russia is minor. It looks like Russian retaliation, perhaps because they had to leave Kherson, Wijninga thinks. “Reducing Kherson to rubble won’t do much for the Russians, other than that Ukraine can no longer use the city.”
If Russia is to silence the Ukrainians in the area, other weapons will have to be used by Russia, Wijninga thinks. “The Himars will have to be used for that, there just isn’t much left.”
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Arson as a war crime
At the same time, Russia also uses so-called incendiary means, which puts the Russians on thin ice because these means, like incendiary bombs, are partly prohibited. “You cannot use them against civilian objects and residential areas, but you can use them against military objects and troop concentrations. If these items are located in residential areas, there is a good chance it will cause civilian casualties. By not handling this carefully, you as a military are not doing everything you can to avoid these kinds of casualties, and that’s only if it’s a war crime.’