Ukraine claims to have stopped a Russian attack and Kherson is also still under attack by the Russians, even though that city is already in Ukrainian hands. But strategically none of this means anything,’ says Hammelburg. ‘On land, the battlefield is literally and figuratively freezing. War is waged in the air with missiles, drones and anti-aircraft guns.”
At the same time, more and more heads of government say that financial aid to Ukraine needs to be streamlined. The fact that the G7 is now involved alongside the IMF is an important sign, says Hammelburg. ‘The EU just organizes new summits and then argues about the amounts and under what conditions the financial support can be granted. The really big countries, especially America, have had enough and believe that deals need to be made now and also for the longer term.’
Support declining
However, there are fears that support for Ukraine is waning. Many countries are also struggling economically and as the war lasts longer, the question of how long Ukraine can be sustained is increasingly being asked. ‘Even within the G7 and America people are wondering how long they can continue to send billions of weapons and money to Ukraine. There comes a time when that support starts to collapse.’ But the fact that the initiative is actually being taken over by the United States is a good development, Hammelburg thinks.
Reconstruction
The fact that during the war there is also talk of the reconstruction of Ukraine is peculiar, but not unique. ‘During WWII, Americans were already starting to think about an aid program which eventually led to the Marshall Plan. And six donor conferences have already been organized for Syria, where 30 billion euros have been raised for aid.’
However, the most exciting example of aid to a country at war dates back to 1973, says Hammelburg. Israel then ran out of weapons during the Yom Kippur War and was in danger of losing the war. Then a transport line was secretly established with the US government for the delivery of weapons. And that line went through Gilze-Rijen Air Base in the Netherlands. The then Defense Minister Vredeling arranged all this without the knowledge of Prime Minister Den Uyl and Foreign Minister Van der Stoel. The Netherlands was severely punished for this by the Arab world with an oil boycott.’