Geopolitical analyst Alex Krijger says the reality is clear: on the Ukrainian front, more than a thousand kilometers long, they are fighting really hard. ‘It will continue, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that winter is coming. I think Stoltenberg was right that he wants to be careful, because the Russians want to take an operational break. It remains to be seen how the West will react to this”.
The escalating battles are an effect of both sides still trying to gain territory before the harsh winter arrives, according to Krijger. “After so many months of misery, the Ukrainians are also entering a terrible winter of war, but they – like the Russians – are still trying to gain ground.”
‘Pause’
And that territorial gain is an important goal, especially for the Ukrainians. “The Russians just want a break from the war,” Krijger continues. “They will probably also insist on talks in the near future.” Krijger bases this claim on the facts at hand. “Russia has just occupied a large part of Ukraine, that’s right. And Putin can therefore take advantage of the winter to manufacture weapons and ammunition, and hope that Europe will relax his attention, “he continues. «The Russians simply have a very clever history of managing winters. Just think of Napoleon and Hitler » .
Krijger therefore thinks that any interruption in the war of several months could very well be exploited by the Russians. ‘And then the question is whether ‘great hero’ Zelensky – who appears in every magazine as man of the year – will get through the winter well. This is quite worrying, which is why Stoltenberg places so much emphasis on it.’
Military success
According to Krijger, it is therefore essential that Ukraine scores at least one more notable military success during the winter. “No matter how difficult and heavy it is. They must be able to sit even more firmly at the negotiating table, and for Europe this means that we must continue with the sanctions. The impact of this is still minimal in Russia itself.’
However, the impact of arms and the support provided by Europe is becoming increasingly evident, he concludes. ‘Europe also sees their responsibility. For the first time, they are now giving more than the Americans, and this is important, because at some point the US will have to shift its focus even further to China.’