“According to experts, this could be half a million more refugees, on top of the million Germany has already received,” says German correspondent Derk Marseille. “According to President Zelensky, ten million Ukrainians are powerless. Despite the fact that the electricity grid will be repaired quickly, it is believed that a significant proportion of these people will seek refuge elsewhere, via Poland and Germany.’
Redistribute
In his conversation with Grandi, Scholz will focus on preventing a refugee crisis like in 2015, thinks Marseille. Then Germany ignored the Dublin Agreement, which required refugees to register with the first country of arrival, and welcomed the refugees very generously. “Merkel later said she would never do it this way again given what she knows now.”
The conversation will therefore certainly be about a better redistribution of Ukrainian refugees among the European member states. “That has always been the German theme in recent years,” said Marseille. ‘Other Central and Eastern European countries are not expecting it, but Germany is trying to put pressure on it. If only to have some change in the negotiations at European level.’
Support base
According to Marseille, Scholz will also have to take into account the fact that German support for taking in more Ukrainian refugees is dwindling. “At the beginning of the war, 73 percent were in favor, but according to the latest polls only 58 percent. There are also ongoing attacks in Germany, including against asylum seekers’ centres. From January to September of this year alone, it happened 65 times. Scholz should take this sentiment into account, and you too should see this conversation with the refugee commissioner in this light.’