There are two new big questions about the battle for the US Senate in California. And the answers will determine the shape of the competition.

First, will former baseball star Steve Garvey be a political great or a failure?

Two: Will touted rookie Senator Laphonza Butler get into the game or sit it out?

Pardon the baseball jargon, but Garvey himself leaned heavily on it in a video announcing his candidacy on Tuesday. And the only thing voters really know about the 74-year-old is that he played for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres decades ago, if they do.

But if Republican Garvey is as good a political candidate as he was a baseball player, and Democrat Butler resigns

Unpleasant

on the ground it could very well mean this: Only one Democrat, not two as expected, will advance from the March primary to next November’s general election.

And its meaning? Voters would be given a clear choice in November between a conservative Republican and a liberal Democrat. It wouldn’t just be a duel in this essentially one-party state between two like-minded Democrats.

Somehow, however, the odds are overwhelming that a Democrat will win the Senate seat held for three decades by the late Dianne Feinstein, a Democratic centrist.

No Republican has won a statewide contest in California since 2006, when Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was re-elected.

Garvey may not be very competitive against a Democrat in a general election, he’s burdened with the tainted Republican brand, but he could at least make the race interesting and give Republican voters someone to get behind.

He would likely give Republicans their best statewide candidate in more than a decade, says Republican Party political consultant Rob Stutzman.

But honestly, we need to see more of what kind of candidate he can be before drawing any sweeping conclusions about how successful he will be.

Los Angeles-based Democratic strategist Bill Carrick doubts Garvey’s past baseball stardom will help him much in the Senate race.

Republican Garvey’s base represents just 17% of registered voters in Los Angeles County, home of the Dodgers, where he played first base from 1969 to 1982. The numbers are slightly better in San Diego County, where Garvey was Padre from 1982 to 1987.

But in the San Francisco Bay Area, baseball fans spend a lot of time singing Beat LA, Carrick notes. Regardless, in the Bay Area, GOP registration is worse than downright dismal.

Once again, Garvey was great on the diamond. He had a remarkable career batting average of .294, was a ten-time All-Star, won four Gold Glove Awards, played on the Dodgers 1981 World Series championship team and holds the National League record for consecutive games played, 1,207.

Well, those are fascinating tidbits for us baseball nuts. But what?

He also voted for Donald Trump twice. So did roughly six million other Californians, but it won him no support among Democrats, who outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1 in California.

Garvey would not say what he thinks about Trump’s current candidacy and whether he thinks the then-president was the initiator of the deadly invasion of the Capitol on January 6.

The Palm Desert Republican is trying to appease Democrats on abortion, long an albatross of California’s Republican Party. Hi

against pro-life abortion

personally, says Garvey, but

I

could never tell anyone else how to live their life.

Soon

the issue, abortion,

he sounds like many

pro-choice

Catholic Democrats

who support abortion rights

.

Garvey says his campaign will focus on issues of quality of life, public safety and education.

Okay, let’s hear some details. So far we’ve only heard standard, generic, consultant-generated talking points.

What already makes Garvey relevant are the top two primaries in California. The top two vote-getters, regardless of party, will advance to the November runoff.

If Garvey can remain the only prominent Republican candidate, he could unite Republicans and get enough votes to finish in the top two.

There are three key Democratic House members: Reps. Adam Schiff of Burbank, Katie Porter of Irvine and Barbara Lee of Oakland. They will split the Democrats’ votes, leaving a smaller total

That

Garvey will have to qualify for the second round.

Republicans could vote in larger numbers than usual because they will have an intriguing presidential primary with Trump as the candidate. But maybe not if Trump’s Republican rivals go bankrupt by then or choose not to compete here on Super Tuesday, when there are several primaries across the country.

The Democratic primaries will be a failure because there will be no competition for President Biden and little incentive for Democrats to emerge.

Garvey could be further helped if Butler enters the race. She would split the Democratic vote even further, assuming one or two current candidates don’t drop out and run for re-election to the House of Representatives. They all claim they wouldn’t, but the dynamic would change if Butler intervened.

Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed Butler, a highly respected black labor leader and Democratic strategist, to fill the remainder of Feinstein’s term, which expires after next year.

There are plenty of logical reasons for Butler to stay out of the race. She’s never run for it before

chosen elective

office. There’s relatively little time left before the primaries to organize a campaign, raise millions, and explore the state while learning the ropes of a new job.

And while the labor movement might be inclined to fund Butler’s campaign, this is a safe Democratic seat that some union-friendly candidate will win anyway. Labor may conclude that it would be wiser to invest in competitive races where control of Congress is at stake.

But a Senate seat can be intoxicating. Butler was able to see this as a God-given, extremely rare opportunity that she could not pass up as a calling.

And there will probably be advisors whispering in her ear with dollar signs in their eyes.

Anyway, in baseball jargon, Garvey and Butler are two promising players.