It’s not a debate. The Republicans want Trump versus Biden in an apocalyptic battle
Opinion piece, Elections 2024
Scott JenningsSeptember 28, 2023
Not viewable.
That’s the only word I can think of to describe the second Republican presidential debate:
at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and Museum in Simi Valley
. The crosstalk. The strange answers. The staging. It just wasn’t visible, at least for the first hour. The second hour was slightly better, but I suspected a lot of people had tuned out after the opening train wreck. The last five
minutes
were probably the best, if you got that far.
The real question emerging from the debate was whether these exercises are now academic, with former President Trump leading the field by such a wide margin nationally and in early voting states (albeit by slightly smaller margins in Iowa and New Hampshire than the national samples). Can other candidates say words or one
–
Liners make a difference?
Clearly, the Republican zeitgeist has changed. Eligibility is no longer a question
a problem
that resonates for GOP voters. They have clearly decided that Trump
is
the most electable Republican running.
Trump scores in poll after poll
highest when Republicans are asked who they are
believe he is most likely to defeat President Biden. That was the theory for months
eventually they would decide that,
even though they may love Trump,
possibly
Their desire to beat Biden would lead them to a more electable candidate.
But it just didn’t happen. Trump has used his
91numerous
charges like rocket fuel, rallying supporters and racing so far ahead of his opponents that they can barely see him. Heck, they can’t physically see him at all, he doesn’t even respect them enough to show up and debate.
Interestingly, rather than Trump himself, the Washington Post and ABC News may have toppled the other Republican campaigns in a poll released Sunday that showed the former president beating the incumbent by 10 points in an election contest !
(i
I won’t dwell on it here, but there’s no doubt that Biden is splitting at high speed if you look under the hood of all these polls, even the ones that show a closer horse race.)
While it is magical thinking to believe that Trump or Biden can win a general election by 10 points in these polarized times, the Post/ABC poll, along with several others showing Trump tied or slightly ahead, is for the Republicans provide ample evidence that the American people are ready to justify your worldview.
And that’s key: Republicans desperately want revenge. For all. For the Russia investigation. Before the impeachments. For the charges. For the 2020 elections. Before January 6. For Biden’s presidency. They want one big apocalyptic contest that they think will deliver what they want to hear: Trump. What. Right.
The Republican Party, remade by Trump, has long wanted this showdown. It’s true that voters briefly worried that Trump had damaged goods after the January 6 riot, but they quickly put that view aside when Trump pushed a narrative that it wasn’t actually all that bad.
Then they worried after Republicans showed disappointingly in the November 2022 midterm elections that Trump might have lost his touch. Or that his touch was poisonous. But Trump managed to change the subject by entering the presidential campaign well ahead of the candidate who should be his strongest challenger, Trump without any baggage: the governor of Florida. Ron DeSantis.
Just as he did after January 6, after Senate Republicans refused to convict him in the second impeachment trial, a wounded Trump has used his time wisely and re-coagulated as the villain in Terminator 2, while DeSantis waited in the wings until late May . .
to appear.
Then the charges came. Many wonder why DeSantis is faltering. I would argue that he is not
; instead of,
Trump is rising. The charges have reminded Republican voters why they fell for Trump in the first place: They believe a cabal of elites is manipulating everything in America
N
to them, and to their champion, just as he always told them.
The 2024 Republican primaries have entered a post-policy phase. There’s no doubt DeSantis has been
a fantastic conservative political and policy success in Florida; a Republican governor
who has achieved results. Or that former UN ambassador and governor of South Carolina. Nikki Haley is a polished presence. Or that Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina is one of the most inspiring Republicans in Washington.
But for the Republican Party right now, no one can provide the justification that Trump can provide if he defeats Biden in 2024. If Trump were to win a national election after all that has happened, for the voters who have remained loyal to him since 2016, it would be: Sweet revenge on the traditional media, on the Democrats and on those at the top of the institutions they have come to distrust at best and despise at worst.
Is the primary over? No. People have to vote, and it’s Iowa or bust for DeSantis and the rest. And the Iowa caucuses have seen dramatic shifts in the past. And perhaps at some point my fellow Republicans will think more seriously about what might happen if we nominate a man who could be a convicted felon by
I
nautration
D
yes in 2025.
But don’t gamble on second thoughts. Trump now looks strong and Biden looks weak, a state of nirvana for most Republican voters.
Scott Jennings is a former special assistant to President George W. Bush and a senior political commentator at CNN.