Bernardo Arvalo, a 64-year-old sociologist and reformer, did the seemingly impossible

week. He overcame trumped-up legal challenges and a better-funded, establishment-backed rival to become Guatemala’s next president.

The landslide victory in Arvalo, won by young and middle-class voters fed up with the government’s endless dysfunction, is a turning point for Central America’s largest country. Political machines backed by major donors and organized crime have dominated elections there for decades, entrenched corruption, violence and poverty and pushed millions of Guatemalans to migrate to the United States.

Run from a rented garage on a shoestring budget, Arvalos’ campaign broke the mold. He won the presidency without backing or promises to vested interests.

It was a deeply symbolic victory. Guatemalans still remember that his father, the late President Juan Jos Arvalo, ushered in a “democratic spring” before a CIA-backed 1954 coup plunged Guatemala into decades of military rule. At Arvalos’ closing campaign rally in Guatemala City, both young and old supporters held up placards promising that spring would bloom again.

Now comes the hardest part: making it happen. Arvalo has a path to success and Guatemala to a future that doesn’t drive hundreds of thousands a year to the U.S.-Mexico border, but both are riddled with obstacles.

The president-elect and his party have a commonsense, centrist agenda that most Guatemalans support, and good political instincts to match. They are not ideologues and they are willing to work with political and business leaders who share their goals.

the problem Such potential allies are scarce. Under President Alejandro Giammattei, Guatemala has moved ever closer to becoming a mafia state, and the powerful vested interests that benefit from the current state of affairs will fight Arvalo tooth and nail. They could even endanger him: The Organization of American States recently exposed two plots to assassinate Arvalo and the vice president-elect.

Arvalo wants to replace politically connected cronies in government agencies with trained professionals, stop skimming government contracts and curb rising electricity and health care costs. But these reasonable reforms run counter to the way Guatemala has operated for decades.

The legal system, filled with henchmen of the establishment, will be an obstacle. In July, in an attempt to dissuade Arvalo from participating, Atty decided. General Mara Consuelo Porras opened three criminal cases against his party and asked a judge to dissolve them. Opposition from parts of the private sector, civil society groups and foreign embassies thwarted the plan, but matters remain open.

Porras, who cannot be removed from office until 2026, continues politically motivated investigations into the Arvalos party and independent election officials. At worst, these matters could dissolve the party and hinder its legislators. Some fear the opposition-controlled Congress could even seize an opportunity to delay or prevent Arvalos’ swearing in in January.

Even if Arvalo’s party evades that, it holds only about one-seventh of the country’s Congressional seats. The rest are controlled by political machines and hard-line conservatives who distrust Arvalo. Leaders of the Arvalos party told me they kept the scope of their agenda modest, knowing they would face a hostile Congress.

But just passing basic legislation, such as the annual budget, will be an uphill battle. Arvalos’ party pledged not to hand out government contracts, cabinet posts or cash, the usual way to curry favor with lawmakers.

Some business leaders rallied behind Arvalo’s reform agenda. But most were publicly silent as the current president undermined democracy and persecuted critics. And some influential tycoons are determined against Arvalo.

Navigating the private sector of many factions without watering down his agenda

will be difficult.

Some of his party’s bolder proposals, such as passing an antitrust law and cracking down on a powerful drug cartel, are sure to cause tension.

Then there will be the challenge of meeting the expectations of its own supporters. When I asked Samuel Prez, the 31-year-old leader of the Arvalos party in Congress, what the biggest challenge of governing would be, he didn’t hesitate: managing the expectations of the Guatemalan people. Because right now, the hope we’ve generated is huge.

There is still reason to hope that the president-elect can deliver on some of his promises. By simply refusing to award contracts and jobs based on political connections, he could curb rampant corruption. With no control over the presidency lining their pockets and financing their campaigns, politicians in Congress may realize they risk losing reelection and change their tune.

Endemic corruption, poor governance and widespread crime cause many Guatemalans to leave the country every year. If Arvalo rules as carefully as he campaigned, Guatemala

has a good one

aimed at repairing the broken institutions and giving the population more reasons to stay.

Will Freeman is a fellow for Latin American studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.