4 in 10 California residents are considering packing up and leaving, new polls show
California politics
Benjamin OreskesJune 23, 2023
With its unparalleled natural splendor and cultural attractions, California is a beacon that attracts people from all over the world who have roots there and call it home.
About 70% of residents said they enjoy living here
other
according to a new statewide poll, citing the state’s diversity, economic opportunities and enjoyable lifestyle as reasons to stick around.
Nevertheless, large groups of residents are also considering packing up and leaving. Many also believe that the state is moving in the wrong direction and are concerned about the direction of the economy and their ability to pay their bills.
The findings of a new poll from a consortium of local nonprofits looking to take stock of the mood in the state point to a contradiction playing out in the Golden State: People are happy with the bounty the nation’s largest state has to offer and particularly favored his liberal views on social issues, but are also much more concerned about their livelihoods than last year.
These numbers offer some insight into the themes likely to emerge in the battle for California’s open Senate seat and its competitive congressional districts next year. In the Senate race, Democratic Reps. Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Adam Schiff are running alongside a slew of other candidates to replace 90-year-old Senator Dianne Feinstein.
In addition, there are several competing congressional districts in California that will play a vital role in whether the Democrats regain the House.
“Voters concerned about the economy but happy with the cultural climate present a complicated challenge for candidates who must appeal to those mixed feelings,” said Dan Schnur, a political communications professor at USC and UC Berkeley who helped develop the leading this research.
Gov. Gavin Newsom has raised its national profile by contrasting California’s values and openness to diversity with the conservative, “anti-woke” waves sweeping through Texas, Florida and other Republican-led states, Schnur noted. A recent interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity was the most recent example, in which Newsom
Where
he boasted that he was proud of the fact that working families are treated better
than
in California than in conservative states like Texas.
“These poll results show that voters are likely to be receptive to a message that draws a state versus national contrast on issues related to diversity and race relations. ‘This is the California way: I’m going to take your values to Washington,'” String said.
In response to questions about what best describes the state, nearly 70% of Californians surveyed pointed to the diversity, comforting atmosphere, and plethora of fulfilling pursuits it offers. About 60% of residents said it is a state where they feel accepted; that number rose to nearly two-thirds among black residents.
But the poll also showed evidence of a counterpoint: Californians were evenly split when asked
as if
the country has “overcorrected and gone too far in its efforts to give everyone equal rights”. A majority of white Californians agreed with that statement; a large majority of black Californians disagreed. Latino and Asian survey respondents were sharply divided. In particular, Latinos were grouped by age, with the majority of respondents being over the age of 50 say the country had gone too far, while younger respondents disagreed.
State residents were also notably less positive about economic issues.
Nearly half of those surveyed (46%) said they struggled to save money or pay for unexpected expenses, even when they jumped by 6
% percent
points since April 2022
when residents were asked the same question.
About 35% say they live comfortably and 18% say they find it difficult to make ends meet each month.
From over
40% of residents say they are considering moving out of California, and nearly half of them say they are considering it “very seriously.” About 61% cited the high cost of living here as a reason to go. People of color are much more likely to say that the cost of living in California is the reason they are leaving. About 71% of residents who are either black or Asian/Pacific Islander and are considering relocating cited the cost of living.
Nearly 30% of those surveyed said they could leave because the state’s policies and laws are inconsistent with their political views, reflecting the state’s and nation’s polarization right now. Respondents who identified as conservative were much more likely to cite state politics as a reason they considered relocating.
Self-identified Republicans were three times as likely as Democrats to say the state’s politics were the reason they wanted to leave.
Some attributed this to the barrage of stories from Fox News and other conservative media outlets that emphasize stories criticizing the state, the governor and its policies on issues ranging from homelessness to school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic. In that same interview with Hannity, Newsom described this Fox News coverage as “a California doom and gloom.
“This is the way politics works sometimes,” Schnur said, referring to some Democrats’ post-Donald reaction
former president
Trump defeated former
sec. Secretary of
State of Hillary Clinton in the 2016
presidential
election.
“Think of all the people who wanted to move to Canada or New Zealand
,
when their favorite presidential candidate was not elected,” Schnur said.
The sombre mood about the state’s direction also had a partisan timbre, according to the poll. Forty-three percent of residents said the state was on the wrong track, an 11 percentage point increase from February 2020. About 28% said it was on the right track.
Amid
of those who identified as Republicans, 83% said the state was on the wrong track, while about 20% of Democrats said the same.
Whites were much more pessimistic about the state than people of color.
The research also provided some insight into the economic crisis many are feeling in the state. About 80% of residents said they were dissatisfied with the cost of daily living. Nearly 70% of residents said they were dissatisfied with California’s economy, and about 55% of those surveyed were dissatisfied with health care and housing costs.
Inflation has been falling in recent months, but that comes after a year of price increases and people’s perceptions of the country’s economic outlook have deteriorated. In California, where housing costs are particularly high, that sense of living on the edge is always present.
About 46% of respondents said they can make ends meet each month but struggle to save or pay for unexpected expenses. This is an increase of almost 10 points since February 2020.
Nearly a fifth of respondents say they find it difficult to make ends meet each month.
Concerns among middle-class earners drove up the number of people reporting economic stress.
In 2020, 54% of people in households earning between $50,000 and $100,000 said they could live comfortably and save for the future, while 34% said they could make ends meet at least every month. This year, only 28% of that same group said they can live comfortably and save for the future, while 17% said they find it difficult to make ends meet more than double each month than they did a few years ago.
“Even when people earn the same income as they did three years ago, their sense of financial security has dropped dramatically,” said Ben Winston, a political consultant for Strategies 360, the company that designed and conducted the poll.
He noted that a similar trend is true for people earning more than $100,000, with nearly half saying they are financially uncomfortable. In 2020, 77% of this earning class felt comfortable and able to save for the future. That has now fallen by 20 percentage points to 57%.
The California Community poll, conducted from June 6 to June 16, was sponsored by three community organizations, the Los Angeles Urban League, Hispanas Organized for Political Equality and the Center for Asians United for Self-Empowerment, and was developed in consultation with Times reporters and editors. It surveyed 1,354 Californians
citizens
over the age of 18, online in English or Spanish, with an estimated margin of error of +/-
2.7
3 percentage points.