In a good month, Celina Chanthanouvong has about $200 left after rent, groceries, and car insurance. That doesn’t take into account her student loans, which have been on hold since the start of the pandemic and are estimated to cost $300 a month. The break in repayment has been a lifeline in keeping the 25-year-old afloat.

I don’t even know where to budget that money, said Chanthanouvong, who works in the marketing department in San Francisco.

Now, after more than three years, the lifeline is being pulled away.

More than 40 million Americans will face federal student loan payments as of late August under the terms of a debt ceiling agreement approved by Congress last week. The Biden administration has been targeting that timeline for months, but the deal ends any hope of further extending the pause, which has been extended while the Supreme Court rules on the president’s debt cancellation.

A Republican measure that reversed Biden’s plan to cancel student loans passed the Senate last week, but the president vetoed the bill on Wednesday.

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Without notice, the Department of Education predicts borrowers will fall behind on their loans at historic rates. Among the most vulnerable are those who completed their studies during the pandemic. Millions of people have never had to pay off a loan, and their bills will soon be coming amid rising inflation and forecasts of an economic recession.

Proponents fear it will add a financial burden that younger borrowers cannot afford.

I worry that we will see a level of default from new graduates that we have never seen before, said Natalia Abrams, president of the nonprofit Student Debt Crisis Center.

Chanthanouvong received a bachelor’s degree in sociology from the University of California, Merced in 2019. She was unable to find a job for a year, which left her dependent on odd jobs for income. She found a full-time job last year, but at $70,000, her salary barely covers living expenses in the Bay Area.

I’m not going out. I don’t buy Starbucks every day. I cook at home, she said. And sometimes I don’t even have $100 after all.

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Under Biden’s cancellation plan, Chanthanouvong would be eligible to have $20,000 of her debt forgiven, leaving her $5,000 in debt. But she’s not counting on the relief. Instead, she invited her partner to move in with them and split the rent. The financial tightness causes them to postpone or reconsider important life milestones.

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My partner and I agreed, maybe we don’t want kids, she said. Not because we don’t want them, but because it would be financially irresponsible for us to bring a human into this world.

Of the more than 44 million federal student loan borrowers, about 7 million are under the age of 25, according to data from the Department of Education. Their average loan balance is less than $14,000, lower than any other age group.

Still, borrowers with lower balances are the most likely to default. It is fueled by millions of people who drop out before graduating, along with others who graduate but struggle to find good jobs. Among those defaulting in 2021, the median loan balance was $15,300, and the vast majority had balances of less than $40,000, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Resuming student loan payments will cost American consumers $18 billion a month, investment firm Jefferies estimates. The blow to household budgets doesn’t bode well for the economy as a whole, Jefferies says, as the United States is widely believed to be on the brink of recession.

Despite the moratorium on student loans, Americans usually don’t put their savings in the bank, according to Jefferies economist Thomas Simons. So they’ll probably have to cut back on other things, travel, restaurants to fit resumed loan payments into their budget. Tightening belts could hurt an economy that relies heavily on consumer spending.

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Noshin Hoque graduated from Stony Brook University early in the pandemic with about $20,000 in federal student loans. Instead of testing the 2020 job market, she signed up

at inside

a master’s program in social work at Columbia University, borrowing $34,000 more.

With payments interrupted, she felt a new level of financial security. She cut costs by living with her parents in New York City, and her non-profit job paid enough to save money and help her parents.

She remembers splurging on a $110 polo shirt as a Father’s Day gift for her dad.

Being able to do things for my parents and let them experience that luxury with me has just been such a plus, said Hoque, who works for Young Invincibles, a nonprofit that supports student debt forgiveness.

It gave her the comfort to enter a new phase of life. She is married to a newly graduated doctor and they are expecting their first child in November. At the same time, they are bracing for the massive loan repayments, which will collectively cost at least $400 a month. They hope to pay more to avoid interest, which is forbidden to them as practicing Muslims.

To prepare, they stopped eating in restaurants. They canceled a vacation to Italy. Money they wanted to put into their child’s education fund instead goes into their loans.

We are back to square one to plan our finances, she said. I feel that so deeply.

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Even the logistics of making payments will be a hurdle for new borrowers, said Rachel Rotunda, director of government relations at National

Association Assn.

of administrators of financial aid for students. They need to figure out who their loan managers are, choose a payment plan, and learn how to navigate the payment system.

The number of borrowers going back to the system at the same time is unprecedented, Rotunda said. It’s fair to say it will be bumpy.

The Department of Education has committed to make the restart of payments as smooth as possible. In a statement, the agency said it will continue to push for Biden’s debt forgiveness as a way to reduce borrower debt and ease the transition.

For Beka Favela, 30, the payment break brought independence. She earned a master’s degree in counseling last year, and her job as a therapist allowed her to move out of her parents’ house.

Without paying her $80,000 in student loans, she started saving. She bought furniture. She wrote off the credit card debt. But once the break is over, she expects to pay about $500 a month. It will eat up most of her disposable income, leaving little for surprise costs. When finances tighten, she wonders

as if

she will have to move back home.

I don’t want to feel like I’m going backwards to make ends meet, said Favela of Westmont, Illinois. I just want to keep moving forward. I’m worried, will that work?

AP Economics writer Paul Wiseman contributed to this report.