Trump and the Republican Party fail to win over young California voters, a bad sign for the GOP
California politics
George SkeltonMay 11, 2023
Now that a jury has labeled Donald Trump a sexual attacker, you’d think Republican politicians in California might muster up the courage to finally expose.
like it
socialize themselves from the toxic polarizer.
But unfortunately, the prospect of that happening isn’t promising.
The former president, who is the early Republican frontrunner to be nominated for the nation’s highest office for a third time, still trusts elected officials at the lower rungs of the political ladder. They are afraid of alienating their hardcore worshippers.
Shame.
It shouldn’t be hard to use the civil jury’s ruling that Trump assaulted a woman in the dressing room of a swanky Manhattan department store as a reason to finally stand up and acknowledge that he can’t go back in the oval office.
He is too immoral, scary and divisive, not exactly an appropriate national role model.
Avoiding him might be one of the most important things, maybe not. 1 that the California GOP could do immediately to halt its downward slide and begin the climb back to relevance and respectability.
It would be important for the future of the California GOPs, which seems very bleak at the moment.
Trump doesn’t have broad support in California anyway, rock hard maybe, but small. He lost the 2020 presidential election election here against Joe Biden by nearly 2 to 1, 63.5% to 34.3%.
Recently released data from the independent Public Policy Institute of California shows that the GOP is losing ground in this state, especially among
young
people aged 18 to 25 the political future.
Certainly for many of them, as well as for Americans of all ages, Trump is the current face of the Republican Party. And it’s not a pleasant scene, the nagging, the lying, the legal issues, especially for young California voters.
Veteran Republican adviser Rob Stutzman offers this advice for the California GOP:
Stay away from Trump. It would be very helpful if Trump were not nominated [in 2024]. He keeps the party from growing. the [California] party has contracted in the Trump era. He’s a loser.
Trump is a drag. He’s not leading a ticket, he’s dragging a ticket. … He has a headwind.
Not every GOP strategist agrees.
I don’t think it would make a small difference to young people, says Republican strategist Matt Rexroad, referring to his daughter.
Even if the Republican leaders of the legislature disowned Trump, Rexroad says, my daughter and her classmates will have no idea who they are. It would make headlines and the evening news, but they don’t read or watch that. They are not places where my daughter gets her news.
She gets her news in places
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TikTok, says Rexroad. They don’t even do Facebook now. That’s for old guys like me.
But Dan Schnur, a former GOP operative who teaches political communications at USC and UC Berkeley, thinks the California GOP could help itself with young voters by calling out Trump to some extent.
For most young Californians, Republicans aren’t even part of the equation, he says. There are three reasons for this: immigration, abortion and Trump. Any of these three issues is enough to dissuade even a relatively moderate youth from considering the Republican Party.
A pro-life, anti-immigrant party won’t get very far here no matter what they say about Trump.
Schnur says that of the 55 students he taught in a recent Berkeley class, only one said she was a Republican. She was a very brave young woman.
A PPIC poll just before the 2020 election showed that young people disliked Trump the most. Only 30% of those under 35 approved of their job performance, compared
along
35% among adults of all ages.
A new PPIC study released Tuesday found that among people under the age of 25 who registered to vote
between of
2012
and to
In 2020, only 14% signed up as Republican, while 48% chose the Democratic Party. The remaining 38% registered mainly as independents, with a few affiliated with other parties.
That 14% is a remarkably low number, says PPIC demographer Eric McGhee. It’s a little glimpse into the future. And that look looks even less Republican than the current political picture.
During that eight-year period, new voters of all ages were 44% Democratic, 19% Republican, and 37% Independent or lesser party, the PPIC reported.
New registrations are causing some pretty dramatic changes in voters’ skin color. We could see a very different partisan skin tone in California in the near future unless something changes, says McGhee.
It is already very skewed in favor of the Democrats.
The latest registration numbers show that within the California electorate, 47% of voters are Democrats, 24% Republicans, and 23% Independents, or no party affiliations.
Paul Mitchell, Vice President of Political Data, dug into current registrations and found that within the 18 to 25 age group, 48% are Democrats, 15% are Republicans, and 37% are independents or members of minor parties.
Young voters are even less than traditionally aligned with the Republican Party, Mitchell says. The anti-trans, anti-abortion, and anti-immigration stances make it difficult for Republicans to appeal to most young voters.
PPIC researcher Mark Baldassare also cites gun control and the environment as issues
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the GOP is out of step with most California voters, especially young people.
Stutzman says the party should continue to focus on high energy prices.
These are issues that Republicans can connect with voters.
If they are not rejected by Trump the sexual abuser.
Republicans will never change course in California as long as they remain Trump lemmings.