Democrats view California as critical to the party’s effort to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2024, with a super PAC linked to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi pledging Tuesday to spend $35 million on competitive congressional races in the stands.

That’s about triple what the group spent on California’s 2022 midterm campaigns, when the Democrats severely underperformed.

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States like California as they fend off an anticipated Republican red wave in congressional races across the country.

Democrats cannot retake the House without winning back seats in California, said David Wasserman, a congressional forecaster for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Wasserman said that Strategic Democrats’ decisions have historically wavered between the need to win House seats in states like California and the cost of campaigning in areas with such expensive media markets. In the November election, the party suffered the consequences of not spending much on California races and losing some close races.

Democrats left several California counties that ended up being pretty close, and they spent a lot of money in other counties that ended up not being very close, he said.

The party and affiliate committees have long been hesitant to put a lot of money down on California racing because the markets are so expensive. They feel there is a better return on investment elsewhere, Wasserman added.

Despite California’s Democrats’ overwhelming voter registration advantage, it’s home to several competing congressional districts, largely because they’re pulled by an independent commission that pays no heed to protecting officeholders. The Republicans’ main congressional super-PAC invested heavily in the state to protect the party’s incumbents, winning an open seat in the Central Valley and nearly eliminating a prominent member of the Democratic House.

As the GOP took control of Congress in 2022 and Bakersfield Rep. Kevin McCarthy won the gavel in January, the margins of both victories were much narrower than expected given historical trends, economic slump and President Biden’s lackluster approval ratings.

Mike Smith, the president of the Pelosi-affiliated House Majority PAC, said the committee plans to focus on 18 congressional districts across the country that are represented by Republicans but voted for Biden in 2020. Five in California is the exact number of seats Democrats need to flip to regain control of the House.

California is critical to the trail, said Smith, a former senior Pelosi adviser. We want to put down a marker early.

Under federal election law, the House Majority PAC is allowed to collect unlimited amounts from donors for independent expenses for individual races, while the national parties and candidates themselves face contribution limits.

In 2022, the Republican incumbents held seats in the Central Valley, northern Los Angeles County and Orange County that the Democrats were sure to win due to Biden’s success in these counties.

The re-election of GOP Reps. Hanford’s David Valadao and Santa Clarita’s Mike Garcia are prime examples, and were the result of finding candidates who fit politically in their districts and smart and effective campaign spending, said Republican redistricting expert Matt Rexroad.

It won’t be a layup for Democrats, Rexroad said. McCarthy has done a good job of recruiting candidates who can hold their districts not just for one term, but for a longer period of time.

Democracy redistribution expert Paul Mitchell agreed that his party completely walked away from the Garcia race, which he said was one of his party’s best odds in the country.

But he also argues that Democrats will have a better chance in some California congressional districts because 2024 is a presidential election year, which means higher turnout among youth, minorities and other voters who prefer

Democratic candidates.

We will have much, much higher Democratic turnout, Mitchell said.

The Democratic political action committees pledged to spend a significant amount of money supporting the party candidates just months after former State Representative Christy Smith, who unsuccessfully ran against Garcia three times, called out National Democrats for not supporting her 2022 campaign.

The utter lack of investment made no sense, Smith said in an interview late last year, shortly after berating her party on Twitter for not supporting her enough in the race to represent California’s 27th district, which includes Santa Clarita, the Antelope Valley and parts of the San Fernando Valley.

The former GOP stronghold has become more democratic as Los Angeles residents moved there in search of affordable housing. The decade-long redrawing of convention maps made the district even bluer by excluding Simi Valley.Democrats have a reason 42% Dem, 29% Rep, 22% NPP

Our campaign was given almost zero outside resources to fight this battle, Smith said in her comments on Twitter. With no help on the air and little elsewhere from Liberal committees and PACs, we didn’t stand a chance, she said.

California party political action committee spending in 2022 was incredibly lopsided, with the House Majority PAC spending less than $12 million compared to $33.1 million spent by its Republican counterpart, the Congressional Leadership Fund linked to McCarthy .

The Republican super-PAC is expected to spend a similar amount in California this cycle to aggressively defend its power in tight races and try to oust vulnerable Democrats.

We won two consecutive cycles in California because major Republican candidates and voters were tired of living in a state where Democratic governance has led to high crime and high costs. California will remain key in the fight to protect the House majority, said Dan Conston, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund.

McCarthy

has long been a fundraising powerhouse, and his prowess seems to have grown since he became a speaker. In February, on his first fundraiser after being elected leader of the House, he reportedly raised more than $12 million in one night.

The Congressional Leadership Fund spent $2.5 million on the Garcia-Smith contest, while the House Majority PAC spent just over $23,000.

Democrats argued that their 2022 strategy was based on the realities of the campaign, including the expected GOP congressional victories across the country and the cost of television advertising in California, home to some of the most expensive media markets in the country.

Also, Democratic candidates like Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine who are now running to resign from Senator Dianne Feinstein’s seat had tens of millions of dollars in their campaign coffers, so they didn’t get the financial backing their Republican rivals did.

The Congress Leadership Fund spent nearly $6.8 million in the race to support former Orange County GOP Chairman Scott Baugh against Porter, while the House Majority PAC spent just over $91,100. Porter narrowly won.

Mitchell said that while he wouldn’t question the Democrats’ past strategy, he predicts the party will invest heavily in these districts in next year’s campaigns.