Democrats flip red, Republicans flip blue on an important issue. Is it permanent?
On Ed, Ukraine
Nicholas GoldbergMarch 27, 2023
Once upon a time the roles were reversed.
In any case, Democrats were skeptical of foreign intervention. Many, especially in the liberal and progressive wings of the party, saw war as inhumane, guarding the world as folly, and the Pentagon as bloated. Humiliated by the failure in Vietnam, the party that gave us Eugene McCarthy, George McGovern and Jimmy Carter pushed for cooperation rather than conflict as the order of the day.
Republicans, on the other hand, were unashamedly more aggressively willing to use US military muscles and project power in support of an American-led world order. For the most part, they believed that if you see the Soviets, the Chinese, or
ISIS Islamic State
as much as an inch in Korea, Vietnam, the Middle East or elsewhere, dominoes would begin to tumble. Peace through strength was the mantra.
But today that paradigm is being turned on its head.
Earlier this month, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is expected to announce his candidacy for president, said continued support for Ukraine is not vital to the United States. He dismissed the war between Russia and Ukraine as merely a territorial dispute. Last week he “clarified” that Russia was wrong, but repeated that
he would oppose an escalation of US involvement.
To some extent, his remarks align DeSantis with former President Trump, whose isolationist, American-first impulses are well known. Trump has said about Ukraine: that war has to stop, and it has to stop now.
DeSantis
so queue
with Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield), the new house
S
speaker, who has vowed that the Republicans will not agree to a blank check for aid to Ukraine.
other
Hey in line
with plenty of other conservative Republicans, like Kari Lake (the loser in last year’s race for governor of Arizona), who sounded more like Tom Hayden than Ronald Reagan in a recent speech: We live on Planet Crazy, where we have hundreds billions of dollars of our hard-earned American money have been sent abroad to start World War III.
Yes, there was pushing
back from the Republican establishment. senates
Majority minority
Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Senator Lindsey Graham (RS.C.) and former
United NationsUN
Ambassador and 2024 presidential candidate Nikki Haley, for example, is among those who support robust aid to Ukraine.
But the reality is that the America-first approach is gaining momentum as it gains significant support from Republican voters, 40% of whom think the US is giving too much aid to Ukraine compared to
along
only 15% of Democrats
who agree
according to the Pew Research Center.
As those changes ripple through the GOP, President Biden and the Democrats are swinging the other way: Stay with our Ukrainian allies as long as it takes, Biden says, giving them more howitzers, missile systems and armored vehicles as nothing less than the America-led international order is at stake.
Biden channeling
ronald
Reagan, not
account
clinton,
Jimmy
driver or
Barak
Obama describes Ukraine as just one front in a global struggle between autocracy versus democracy. Do you want to live in a repressive world led by Russia’s Vladimir Putin, China’s Xi Jinping and their allies or in an enlightened liberal democracy like we have in the US and Europe?
As Senator Robert Menendez (DN.J.), chairman of the foreign relations committee, put it: Today it’s Russia and Ukraine. Tomorrow it will be other nations.
It is true that the US is not actually waging war, but only arming its allies in Ukraine. But according to a survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, liberal Democratic voters are now more in favor of putting boots on the ground around the world than independents, moderate Democrats or Republicans. More than half of the liberal Democrats
would
support sending US troops to intervene if Russia invades a NATO ally, or if North Korea invades South Korea, or if China invades Taiwan.
So what’s going on here? Are we witnessing a real ideological rearrangement that will last? Or is this purely situational, the result of a combination of Putin’s invasion, the upcoming presidential election and the Trump phenomenon?
As Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai reportedly said of the significance of the French Revolution more than a century after it happened, it’s too early to say.
Several experts told me not to assume that a long-term shift is underway. They suggested there was a lot of political posturing and jockeying going on, especially because of Trump’s disruptive presence in the 2024 race.
The pendulum swings, but I’m not sure we have clarity on how far it swings or exactly in what direction, said Andrew Bacevich,
chairman the president
from the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
Bacevich’s point of view is that there is at least not that much difference between the parties. He argues that the party in power, whatever it is, tends to emphasize the importance of strong American leadership and
the minority party generally shows more sensitivity to risks, costs and trade-offs.
But Bacevich also acknowledges that Trump Republicans are growing increasingly frustrated with a costly, activist US foreign policy.
Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, doubts we are seeing a real realignment. He argues that there are many progressive Democrats
UN
excited about our involvement in Ukraine. And while it’s true that GOP voters are becoming increasingly skeptical of a muscular foreign policy, he’s not sure it will last long.
Their leaders say what they think they need to say to get the nomination, he said. The interesting question is whether Trumpism, with its isolationist impulse, will dominate Republican circles after Trump leaves the scene. Or will there be a return to 41ism and 43ism?
Haass referred to the more internationalist policies of President George HW Bush and his son. (Remember Iraq?)
As far as I’m concerned, I’d like to see less ideology, less rhetoric, less 2024 jockeying, and more pragmatism. In a sane world, Republicans and Democrats would come together in search of a coherent policy that would help the people of Ukraine fight Putin’s unwarranted aggression, without entering another Cold War or being swept up in an escalating quagmire. .
That’s too much to hope for, though, given the dire state of American politics.