At the same time, D66 will drop to 5 instead of the previously calculated 6 seats, the PNA Elections Service reports in the new forecast. GroenLinks and PvdA, which will form a parliamentary group in the senate, will have 15 seats with 8 and 7 seats respectively. That is 1 more than the two parties now have in the Senate. The VVD is in third place with 10 seats.
The new prognosis is calculated on the basis of the provisional results of all municipalities, the 95 percent of the votes counted in Amsterdam and the provisional results of the Dutch living abroad, which the municipality of The Hague provided on Sunday. The results of the people who voted on the BES islands have not yet been received, but this affects relatively few voters.
Fewer coalition seats
In the new forecast, the coalition of VVD (10), D66 (5), CDA (5) and CU (2) will have 22 seats, 10 fewer than the current government parties. 38 seats are needed to obtain a majority in the Senate, which has 75 seats. The coalition already lacked a majority in the Senate and now has even fewer seats. This means that the coalition must garner more support from parties on the left or right to pass the policy.
The CDA in particular, which lost heavily in Wednesday’s provincial elections, will receive fewer seats in the Senate. The party had 9 and there are 5 left. The other coalition parties lose two seats each: VVD goes from 12 to 10, D66 from 7 to 5 and ChristenUnie goes down from 4 to 2.
Forum for Democracy, the party that became the largest in the Senate in 2019 with 12 seats, won 2 seats in the Senate. Incidentally, the party had already lost 11 senators, as they split into three other factions. The rest of the senate should consist of: PVV (5, remains the same), PvdD (4, was 3), SP (3, was 4) and JA21 (3, was 7 as Nanninga faction). Newcomers Volt, 50PLUS, SGP and OSF get 1 spot each. The last remaining seat can go to the PVV or the SGP.
New members of Parliament and constituencies will elect senators in late May. Incidentally, Members of Parliament are not obligated to vote for a candidate from their own party, but they usually do. Furthermore, parties can still enter into deals with each other to secure seats in the Senate.