The surprise announcement of a resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, thanks to a deal brokered by Beijing, underscores regional governments’ interest in de-escalating tensions and China’s willingness to expand its economic clout to be used to achieve this.

While observers, especially U.S. officials, are warning against giving too much credit to Beijing for the deal, which was unveiled Friday, the rapprochement could also be seen as a wake-up call for Washington, with the potential to undermine its long-running calculations and relations in the Middle East.

Forging an alliance against Iran has united the US and numerous countries in the region, and even had the once-unthinkable result of fueling diplomatic ties between Israel and several Arab states that previously refused to recognize Israel’s existence.

But the new detente between Tehran and Riyadh, after more than seven years of sometimes warlike animosity, indicates that regional US allies

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Saudi Arabia is increasingly willing to go its own way. Hopes that the oil-rich kingdom will even join fellow Arab nations such as Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates in recognizing Israel, out of shared fear of Iran, now seem doubtful.

Still, Biden administration officials were quick to praise the diplomatic breakthrough as, if fulfilled, it could ease direct and proxy conflict in the Middle East. US officials also tried to downplay China’s role, saying that Iraq and other Gulf Arab states were also involved, noting that this was not a deal the US could make because Washington itself has no formal relations with Tehran.

“When it comes to our role in the region…I find it hard to ponder ‘our role could be displaced’ when no country on earth has done more to help build a more stable, more integrated region,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said Monday.

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But China’s increasing role in the Middle East, following its intensive economic and diplomatic activities in Africa and Latin America, has become a geopolitical reality facing the US and the West.

This is especially true of Iran, whose sanctions-crippled economy has counted China among its most important trading partner for the past decade; in 2021, it signed a deal for Chinese investments of $400 billion over 25 years in exchange for oil. Trade between the two nations will exceed $15 billion by 2022, up 7% from the previous year, Chinese officials say.

China had a trade value of $87.3 billion with Saudi Arabia in 2021,

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making it Riyadh’s main trading partner that year. In December, at a bilateral summit, the two countries signed seven infrastructure deals totaling $1 billion in investment. In the first half of 2022, Saudi Arabia was the largest recipient of Chinese investment of $5.5 billion under Beijing’s Belt and Road infrastructure financing initiative, according to the Shanghai-based Green Finance and Development Center.

“We are not looking to match the PRC [People’s Republic of China] dollar for dollar in the amounts they provide to, let’s call them, infrastructure projects around the world,” Price said when addressed on the issue of the perceived decline in US influence. a state economy and a command-style economy that we don’t have.”

In Friday’s announcement, China, Iran and Saudi Arabia praised the “noble initiative” that will see Tehran and Riyadh reopen their embassies over the next two months. Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, was pictured with Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s top national security council, and Saudi national security adviser Musaad bin Mohammed Aiban.

Some analysts said the deal wasn’t as much of a surprise as it first appeared.

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The two countries have shown a willingness to engage in diplomacy since 2021, with much of the groundwork for a resumption of ties laid at five summits in Iraq and Oman, said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, the CEO of the Bourse and Bazaar Foundation , a London organisation. based think tank.

China was not present at those talks.

While this felt like an agreement out of the blue, we should have some confidence that it will hold because it’s part of a longer process, which had come to a head, he said. What is surprising is that the Chinese offered a platform for mediation, and both sides signed it in Beijing.

Letting China take the lead and take credit for the final push was a kind of reprimand from Washington, said Jonathan Fulton, a senior nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council. And by deliberately excluding the United States, the Saudis, in particular, can demonstrate their intention to diversify their lenders and interests.

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The Saudis and Iranians “are saying look, there’s another great power that can do things to us,” Fulton said, adding that the region’s main concern was development and economics rather than taking sides in the competition between great powers .

They want to work with major powers that stabilize the region, and the perception is that the US has taken a very security-oriented approach,” he said.

While the US has generally imposed economic coercive sanctions, mainly to change behavior in the region while favoring its allies, China has leveraged its position as the leading energy importer and regional investor.

“The message from China is: we don’t choose favourites. We want to be economic and invest in your prosperity, and as part of that, we want to [you] to take into account Chinese interests,” Batmanghelidj said. And those interests are that China does not want a conflict between those countries because it depends on energy exported through the Persian Gulf.

There are many questions about the deal, not least how far both governments will go to undo years of utter rupture and whether the dividends will extend to Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, countries where Saudi Arabia and Iran have struggled with political or paramilitary proxies. .

The biggest breakthrough could be in Yemen, where a Saudi Arabian-led coalition has been battling Iran-backed Houthi militias since 2015, which in turn regularly fire ballistic missiles across Yemen’s northern border into Saudi Arabia. In a statement, Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations said the deal would accelerate a ceasefire, initiate national dialogue and lead to an inclusive national government in Yemen.

While the deal heralds a more active role for Beijing, it also signals a Saudi foreign policy less focused on US interests.

The Biden administration has been at odds with Riyadh on several occasions recently. Alongside continued outrage over the killing of US-based Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, reportedly on the orders of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, President Biden clashed with Saudi officials when they refused to ramp up oil production over Russian energy shunning . it was in Ukraine.

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Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the US is struggling with how best to deal with Saudi Arabia, long the main ally in the Gulf region but now a less reliable one. player in the eyes of Washington. .

“The US government is in two minds” about the Saudis seeking new partners, Alterman said at the

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place. “It wants the Saudis to take increasing responsibility for their own security, but it doesn’t want Saudi Arabia to go freelancing and undermining US security strategies.”

Bulos reported from Beirut and Wilkinson from Washington.