Less than a year after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, an expected one

Republican

presidential candidate, signed into law a ban on abortion at 15 weeks of pregnancy, showing support for an even stricter ban introduced by state lawmakers this week. His position could have implications for access to abortion not just in Florida but throughout the South, as well as playing a role in the 2024 presidential race.

Current Florida law

In June 2022, the US Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade ruling of 1973 and gave states control over abortion. Some conservative lawmakers had passed bills years in advance that would impose bans on abortion if Roe were overturned. Florida was not one of those states, but lawmakers there acted after the leak of a draft version of the new abortion ruling, Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, in January 2022.

Florida lawmakers agreed to ban abortions after 15 weeks, with the exception of life-threatening pregnancies, but not in cases of rape or incest. DeSantis signed the ban last April and it took effect in July.

The new proposal

The deeper ban, proposed during the opening of Florida’s legislative session on Tuesday, would make it a crime to perform an abortion after six weeks of gestation.

There would be an exception for life-threatening pregnancies and exceptions up to 15 weeks for pregnancies caused by rape or incest. In those cases, documentation is required, such as a medical record, a restraining order, or a police report.

The measure would also require the drugs used in drug-induced abortions, which make up the majority of abortions performed nationally, to be dispensed only in person by a physician.

DeSantis this week called the rape and incest provisions sensitive and reiterated his support for tighter restrictions, saying, “We welcome pro-life legislation.”

If Republican lawmakers can agree on the details, the measure is likely to become law.

DeSantis was easily re-elected in November, when Republicans also gained a veto-proof majority in the state legislature.

What it could mean on the ground

With a ban on abortion at all stages of pregnancy in nearby Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi, and a ban on terminating pregnancies in Georgia after early heart activity can be detected around six weeks, Florida has become a haven for those seeking are to abortion in the region.

A six-week gestational ban would mean fewer people travel to Florida for abortions, and more people want to venture even further afield, to places like North Carolina and Illinois.

A six-week ban is quite a shock to practical access to abortion in the South, said Caitlin Myers, an economics professor at Middlebury College in Vermont who studies access to abortion.

There would also be an impact for Florida residents.

Nationally, only about 4% of abortions occur at 15 weeks, but most occur at 6 weeks and 6 days.

Myers said that in states with six-week bans, it seems like about half of people seeking abortions were able to get them.

What it could mean for DeSantis

Abortion bans matter to many Republican primary voters, and the ban DeSantis signed into law last year was much less aggressive than the laws in most GOP-controlled states. Thirteen states now have effective bans on abortion at all stages of pregnancy, and half a dozen have similar laws on the books, but enforcement has been stalled by courts.

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, another possible 2024 Republican presidential candidate, was asked in a CBS News interview last year if she would urge DeSantis to further restrict abortion.

I think talking about situations and making statements is incredibly important, she said. “But also taking action and implementing policies and policies that protect lives are even more important because that is what will really save lives.

Bringing Florida closer to what other GOP-controlled states have done on abortion by enacting the six-week ban could be important, as DeSantis presents himself as the architect of conservative policy in a state he says is doing what the nation should do.

Florida Republicans’ legislative agenda for the coming months includes making guns available, barring immigrants who are in the country illegally from the state, telling teachers what pronouns to use on students and criminalizing some drag shows.

DeSantis is expected to formally launch his presidential candidacy sometime after the May session ends, though the wheels of his campaign are already in motion. He spoke in the early state of Iowa on Friday, and on Thursday a former White House official of President Trump launched a group encouraging DeSantis to run for president.

While aggressive abortion bans are popular with many conservatives, they are seen as unpopular among other crucial voting blocs, particularly suburban women who play an outsized role in general elections.

In 2022, there were abortion ballots in six states, including the generally conservative Kansas, Kentucky and Montana. In each of them, the abortion rights side prevailed.

FOR PRINT: Mulvihill and Izaguirre write for the Associated Press. Mulvihill reported from Cherry Hill, NJ