The 2024 California primary is less than a year away, but no prominent Republican has announced plans to seek California’s open U.S. Senate seat.

–

time GOP powerhouse that spawned two presidents and four governors

in the span of just

about

a

half century.

As one of California’s most highly regarded political posts, the Senate seat is vacated by outgoing Senator Dianne Feinstein, who was first elected to office in 1992. Democrats lined up to compete for the seat.

The same can’t be said for GOP hopefuls, a sign that the Republican Party barely exists at the state level, said Jack Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College who was a Republican for decades until Donald Trump was elected president in 2016.

If more than 1,000 Members of the party faithful and their guests prepare to gather in Sacramento this weekend, Pitney noted that a GOP candidate has not won a statewide election since 2006, and California has not had a Republican in the state since Pete Wilson in 1988. US Senate elected.

So if you’re a Republican trying to get people to donate to a Senate campaign, you’re asking them to make a bad investment. If you’re a wealthy person looking to fund a campaign yourself, you’re likely to lose a lot of your own money, Pitney added. Of course, one never says never. It’s possible we could see political and demographic changes in the next few years, but at least for the next few election cycles, it’s very hard to see how a Republican can win a California Senate race.

But as the party gathers for a three-day convention starting Friday near the Capitol in downtown Sacramento, there are bright spots

most

notably Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield who won the gavel as speaker of the House. He will headline the Saturday convention lunch.

To have a Californian a California Republican, someone so devoted and so devoted to the California Republican Party, is a big deal to all of us and we are happy to celebrate, said state GOP chair Jessica Millan Patterson.

The party also helped successfully defend GOP Reps. Santa Clarita’s Mike Garcia, Hanford’s David Valadao, and Seal Beach’s Michelle Steel in competitive congressional races helped farmer John Duartes win in a newly Democratic tilting district in the Central Valley and nearly ousted Rep. Katie Porter in Orange County, despite the Democrats’ huge financial lead. Steel and Duarte speak at a dinner panel Saturday night.

Millan Patterson said the party has won five congressional seats in California since 2020

were what

important for McCarthy to become a speaker.

Republicans in California are certainly riding a victory lap, she said.

Retaining these seats, as well as Rep.’s Riverside County precinct. Ken Calvert next year during

a

Presidential elections, Democratic voters have a higher chance of turning out, are essential to ensure that the GOP gets the

house

. The state’s presidential primaries, which will take place on Super Tuesday in early March next year, may also play a central role in the GOP nomination contest, as California has the most delegates of any state in the country.

Millan Patterson said some Republicans were testing the waters for a possible Senate run and could show up at this weekend’s convention. But she added that she expected the state’s early presidential primaries and focused congressional and legislative races to be the primary focus of the 2024 election.

California has the most Republican voters in the country for its size, but they vastly outnumber Democrats and are roughly on par with those voters who refused to express a party preference.

This has led to a strategic shift by the party to be used

they are

limited resources to focus on the races where it can be most successful,

a

strategy

first championed by former Legislative Leader Jim Brute when he became state party chairman in 2013.

Donors suck up. Volunteers suck. So you have more money than you could ever spend efficiently, Brute said, pointing to the huge sums of money the Democratic administration has. Gavin Newsom raises for non-competitive races.

The States Democrats have a significant financial advantage. In 2022, according to the Secretary of State, the California Democratic Party reported raising $29.7 million and ended the year with $17.2 million in the bank. The state’s GOP raised $13.5 million during the same period, with $652,000 remaining in the treasury at the end of 2022.

If you’re the minority party, not just in California, if you’re the minority party in any state, you have to watch your resources much more jealously because you don’t have that many, Brutte said. Ultimately, I think helping to keep the congressional majority is the priority

No. 1 number one

. Picking up a few legislative seats would also be a good thing.

Brute expects a GOP senate candidate to emerge, but is skeptical that he or she would receive significant national or state party support.

Lanhee Chen, a respected academic and policy advisor to Republican presidential candidates, ran for state comptroller last year, outperforming any statewide GOP candidate in recent memory (and winning the most votes of any Republican candidate in the country) . He lost by 10.6 percentage points.

The Stanford University lecturer said he was urged to run for the Senate seat but is hesitant for several reasons: Running statewide in California is extremely expensive and GOP donors are tired of running here in races all over the world. state to invest because of the lack of success in almost two decades. Penetrating the heavily Democratic voting blocs in Los Angeles County and the Bay Area is a formidable challenge. There is great uncertainty about who will be the Republican presidential nominee and top the list. And a federal race emphasizes issues like abortion, gun control and immigration, which are particularly diverse in blue states

like like like

California.

I just don’t see a way to win there, Chen said. It hasn’t stopped people from talking to me about it.

Other Republicans who have recently participated in statewide races, radio host Larry Elder, former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer, Bieber state senator Brian Dahle, attorney Mark Meuser, have publicly expressed no interest in running for the Senate.

So far, 14 people have filed paperwork to run for the seat on the Federal Election Commission, eight Democrats, five Republicans and one candidate affiliated with a minor party. Representative Katie Porter, Adam B. Schiff and Barbara Lee, all Democrats, are the most visible candidates in the race. The rest is unknown.

Under California’s jungle primary system, the two candidates receiving the most votes advance to the general election regardless of party. If the Democratic vote splinters among multiple candidates, a Republican may pass if GOP voters rally behind one candidate.

Given the state’s electoral tilt, the chances of a GOP candidate being successful in a statewide contest here seem extremely slim, barring an unprecedented shift among the state’s voters or a Watergate-like event. But political observers argue that a strong voice addressing issues such as taxes, water policy, high-speed rail and other important issues to California voters would elevate political discourse in the state and benefit all voters.

I find it amazing that no one is coming to say, I want to push candidates to respond to these very real concerns in what is essentially a one-party state, said Jessica Levinson, a professor of suffrage at Loyola Marymount University. There’s a lot of things that aren’t hot-button national topics that you’d think we’d benefit from a diversity of viewpoints.