Political parties had until yesterday to present their lists of candidates for the March 15 elections. Boer Burger Beweging, Ja21, Volt, BVNL are participating for the first time. According to political journalist Chris Aalberts, the BBB has submitted long lists of names. “They’ve put 25 to 50 names on the lists, they’re all volunteers they trust.”
By way of comparison, the PVV has in many cases only placed 10 names on the list. This can still lead to problems. ‘If a seat cannot be filled immediately because there are too few people on the list, the seat will go to another party. If the seat cannot be filled at a later time, as has often happened at the Forum for Democracy, the seat will simply remain empty.’
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The difference with the big national parties is clear, says Waling. “These established parties have listed the tigers of the administrative parties. These are people who are not very well known, color neatly within the lines and can move from this position to a national political position.’
The question is how newcomers will fare in March. “Based on the polls we can say very little, but the electoral threshold is quite high,” says Aalberts. «At 55 seats, the threshold is 1.9 percent. Forum, Volt and Denk are nearby, as is BBB. BVNL, Wybren van Haga’s party, is a long way from there.’
The BBB is doing quite well in the polls, but according to Aalberts the question is how many seats the party will snatch from the CDA. “And the question is also where all those seats in the Forum for Democracy go.” ‘If BVNL and Volt are not right, you will only have BBB and Ja21 on the right.’
Waling expects another battle. ‘The CDA seats that were lost with the departure of Pieter Omtzigt are also interesting for conservative liberals who no longer want to belong to the VVD. They could very well go to BBB or Ja21.’
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This fragmentation to the right could benefit left-wing parties. “PvdA-GroenLinks may become the biggest party in the national framework, but that doesn’t mean that the Netherlands has also started voting more to the left,” says Waling. “The Netherlands will vote even more to the right than last time, only due to the fragmentation the right-wing parties will remain smaller than PvdA-GroenLinks.”
The only hope for splinter parties, according to Waling, is cooperation, “which makes coalitions possible.” Something BBB has in store, he thinks. ‘A lot can be said about Van der Plas, but she is constructive. We just don’t know who or even she selected the right people. We know nothing about it.’