New oil forecast from Goldman Sachs
$100 predictions for oil prices, which have risen above $95 as concerns mount over global demand growth and supply shortfalls.
As the price of a barrel of Brent oil surpassed $95, Goldman Sachs, a major US bank, raised its 12-month forecast for Brent oil from $93 to $100.
Showing new signs of congestion due to supply cuts by OPEC+ leaders, oil rose to its highest level in 10 months on Tuesday, rising more than 30 percent since June.
The rapid decline in inventories due to recovery prospects in the world’s two largest economies, the United States and China, supported oil’s rise. Goldman Sachs said most major economies are currently on track for a soft landing.
FORECAST OF 105 DOLLARS BY 2024
“We believe OPEC can keep Brent in the $80 to $105 range in 2024, taking advantage of strong global demand growth focused on Asia,” Goldman analysts Daan Struyven, Callum Bruce and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby wrote in a report. on September 20.
The analysts also said: “OPEC is unlikely to drive prices to extreme levels, which would destroy persistent long-term demand.”
While Goldman says global oil consumption is at a record level, it estimates the market will have a deficit of 2 million barrels per day this quarter and a deficit of 1.1 million barrels per day over the past three months. of 2023.
THE INCREASE INCREASED THE FORECAST BY $100
The rise in oil has revived rumors about the possibility of setting a price of $100 per barrel.
While Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said oil prices were likely to rise back to the $100 level due to reduced supply and declining inventories, Energy Aspects Research President Amrita Sen He predicted that prices could rise above $100 “for a while.”
Ed Morse, head of global commodities research at US bank Citigroup, also said oil may rise above $100 for a short time due to geopolitical and technical trading. But Morse added that a market adequately supplied with non-OPEC producers should mean that $90 prices appear unsustainable.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said on Monday that OPEC is working to keep oil markets stable and increase global energy security without targeting a specific price level, and that production plans will be reviewed every month. .