The IEA expects global oil demand to rise to 102.1 million barrels this year. It is the highest number ever. While the increase was expected, it’s not good news for global greening.
Beekhuis also sees other less positive signs. Shell is considering selling its green business to focus on oil and gas. “And OPEC figures predict an even greater increase in oil consumption. Even if those countries have a stake in it themselves and that can affect the figures.’
Peak oil in 2028
According to the (IEA), we will reach the so-called ‘peak oil’ in 2028, after which consumption will decrease worldwide. “You can also look on the bright side and point out that the IEA has adjusted its demand growth down slightly for next year,” says Beekhuis. In other words, we will reach another record, because oil consumption will be higher than this year. But the record will be less impressive than this year’s.
China is largely responsible for the growing demand for oil. “The country is responsible for 70 percent of the growth,” said the energy reporter. Even if it is precisely the ailing Chinese economy that will also cause the relative decline next year.
China has green ambitions
The fact that China therefore has no green ambitions is, according to Beekhuis, too short-sighted. ‘China is also the largest in nuclear power, wind power and solar power. But they also play a huge role in coal, and therefore in oil.”
This week, President Xi Jinping stressed that China’s CO2 emissions need to be further reduced. China has given itself until 2060 to reduce emissions to zero. “This is because it sees itself as a developing country and therefore believes it should have more time than industrialized countries.”