To meet the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target, the price level could rise by more than 1.0% per month over the next four months. But fuel prices have also recently risen again. However, De Jong believes there is a good chance that inflation will approach 0% next October.
bill drivers
Macroeconomist Edin Mujagic goes one step further, he thinks inflation in the summer could “blow away from the Netherlands.” According to Mujagic, the huge increase in energy prices in the summer of 2022 is the basis. “Prices then sometimes went up 200 to 300 percent, which is pretty spectacular.” The previous year’s prices are used for the current inflation rate. The macroeconomist therefore expects to see an inflation rate of 0%.
While inflation will show a downward trend in the near future, it also appears that costs for road users could increase significantly, up to €1,000 a year. Various scenarios show that road toll costs can average 7 to 8 cents per kilometre. Transportation economist Erik Verhoef of VU University calls this a realistic and logical amount. “If you divide the proceeds of excise duties on fuel by the number of kilometers travelled, you arrive at this figure”.
Energy prices
Not only are the costs for road users increasing, but also company wages and profits seem to be increasing. ECB chief Christine Lagarde views this with suspicion, threatening to intervene if wages and corporate profits continue to rise. Because if that happens, inflation cannot be contained enough. Lagarde said this in an interview with the French newspaper La Provence. Lagarde previously said that interest rates would most likely be raised again by a quarter of a percentage point at the next interest rate decision.
Energy prices in Europe are also expected to rise sharply in the coming winter. This could put significant pressure on household finances, Fatih Birol, CEO of the International Energy Agency (IEA), told the BBC. Energy expert Ronald de Zoete doesn’t share that fear. He suspects it will be better than expected because inventories are well filled and a joint natural gas purchase program has been agreed with the EU. “But there are definitely risks.”