Global warming, which has a growing effect on economies and affects human life and the environment, is estimated to increase food inflation by 3 percent and headline inflation by more than 1 percent each year until 2035.

Research from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, which examines the rapidly changing macroeconomic effects of climate change, revealed the relationship between global warming and inflation.

HOT WAVE REDUCES AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

Speaking about the study’s findings, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research researcher Maximilian Kotz said the effects of global warming on inflation began to attract more attention from economists after the heatwaves in Europe on last year.

Stating that there was a decline in agricultural production due to extreme heat waves and drought in 2022 in Europe, and this increased food prices, Kotz said:

INCREASES 0.7 POINTS IN EUROPE

“We examined changes in climate and inflation in 121 different countries over the last 30 years and found that the escalating effects of climate change also increased inflation, especially food inflation.

For example, last year’s extreme heat waves in Europe contributed 0.7 percentage points to the increase in food inflation. Of course, not all of the 10 percent food inflation was caused by climate change. Factors like the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have led to higher inflation, but as global warming intensifies, so does the impact on inflation.”

FOOD INFLATION WILL RISE

On how global warming will affect inflation through 2035, Kotz said: “We see climate change getting worse and worse.

We predict that intensifying global warming will increase food inflation around the world until 2035. Global warming could lead to higher food inflation of 1 to 3 percent each year until 2035. These rates may not sound high, but the impact of climate change on food inflation is becoming persistent.” made an assessment of him.

IT WILL ALSO AFFECT EMPLOYMENT AND GROWTH RATES

Expressing that global warming will affect employment and growth rates, as well as inflation, Kotz said there are strong signs that macroeconomic growth rates and production will gradually decline due to climate change.

Stating that scientists are examining the effects of climate change on the macroeconomy and the workforce, Kotz said: “There will be fewer job opportunities in the future because of climate change. Of course, the extent of these effects will depend on how much emissions will increase from fossil fuels and how much the increase in emissions will be exacerbated by global warming.” he performed the assessment of it.

Emphasizing that especially some parts of the world have become uninhabitable due to global warming and this leads to climate migration, Kotz said that the increased frequency of droughts and extreme heat waves poses a risk especially for communities in sub-Saharan Africa. .

Those who live from agriculture are in difficulties

Kotz asserted that the people who live in these regions make a living from local agricultural production, saying, “Currently, there is no robust infrastructure to support these communities against declining agricultural production in these regions. The possible result of this is increased climate migration. There is not enough scientific data on this topic, but we can see that climate migration will become a bigger problem. It is scientifically difficult to predict how big it will be at this time, “said he.

According to research from the ECB and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, global warming will range from 0.92% to 3.23% in food inflation by 2035, and from 0.32% to 0.32% in headline inflation, if adaptations to climate change remain insufficient. will cause an increase of 1.18, the seasonal dynamics observed in inflation will also change.

The impact of global warming on inflation will be greater in developing countries, known as the “Global South” and which, although their contribution to climate change is low, are the most vulnerable to its effects.

TEMPERATURE RISE MAY EXCEED THE LIMIT OF 1.5 DEGREES IN 5 YEARS

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the increase in global temperature reached 1.15 degrees Celsius in 2022 compared to the pre-industrial period.

The possibility of exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius, which was determined by the United Nations Organization (UN), as the last habitable limit in temperature increase, has accelerated in recent years. According to the WMO, the temperature increase between 2023 and 2027 will be between 1.1 and 1.8 degrees higher than the period 1850-1900.

While the probability that at least one of the next 5 years will be the warmest year in the world and that 2023-2027 as a whole will be the warmest year is 98%, the probability of exceeding the 1.5 degree limit between these years is calculated as 66 percent. (AA)