Russia’s crude oil and diesel exports exceed pre-war levels

Russia, which has found new export destinations in the face of sanctions imposed by Western countries due to the war in Ukraine, currently exports larger volumes of crude oil and diesel than before the war, while selling part of its crude with a mixture of ” Kazakh oil”, which is exempt from sanctions.

According to information compiled from Russian crude oil and petroleum products export data covering the period January 2016 to June 2023 obtained from London-based real-time data tracking company Vortexa, the Russia’s crude oil exports were the lowest at 2.28 million barrels per year. day in said period, it oscillated between the high 4.02 million barrels.

The highest crude oil exports were registered in May 2019 and the lowest in July 2020.

NOT AFFECTED AS EXPECTED BY SANCTIONS

Following the war launched by Russia in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Western countries targeted the country’s export earnings by applying an embargo and price ceilings on Russian crude and petroleum products, on which they heavily depended, while that Russia had to find new export destinations in the face of sanctions.

Although the European Union (EU) and the G7 countries have banned the import of seaborne oil from Russia and the maximum price decision of $60 per barrel came into effect on December 5, Russia’s export volume, especially since China and India increased their Russian crude. Oil purchases were not affected as much by the sanctions as expected.

OIL EXPORTS ABOVE PRE-WAR LEVEL

Before the start of the war, Russia’s crude exports between January 2021 and January 2022 ranged from 2.75 million barrels to 3.30 million barrels per day.

Crude oil exports, which were 3.17 million barrels per day in February 2022 when the war began, registered less than 3 million barrels per day in July and December 2022 alone.

While Russia’s crude exports were 3.29 million barrels per day in February 2023, when the war left a year ago, 3.51 million barrels per day in March 2023, 3.71 million barrels in April 2023, 3 in May 2023. At 64 million barrels and 3.49 million barrels in June 2023, it also exceeded the pre-war level.

PENALTIES FOR THE RELEASE OF CRUDE OIL IN TRANSIT

On the other hand, Russia managed to sell its crude as “transit crude” by mixing it with oil of Kazakh origin in increasing quantities and thus avoiding sanctions.

In this period covered by the data, exports of crude oil in transit were recorded as the lowest of 635 thousand barrels per day in August 2016 and the highest of 1.84 million barrels per day in March 2023. In In other words, the mix of Russian crude oil with Kazakh oil broke the record, exceeding the pre-war level.

This figure was 1.64 million barrels per day in April 2023, 1.63 million barrels per day in May 2023, and 1.61 million barrels per day in June 2023.

Thus, Russia’s total crude oil exports, including Kazakhstani oil blend, increased from 4.67 million barrels per day in February 2022 to more than 5.3 million barrels per day after the war. .

In June 2023, this figure was 5.1 million barrels per day.

DIESEL EXPORT IS CLOSE TO A RECORD

Diesel exports from Russia, meanwhile, reached 1.1 million barrels in February 2022, although they were mostly below 1 million barrels per day in the data period.

Although Russia’s diesel exports fell to 800,000 barrels a day after the war, as Western buyers looked for alternatives, they rose to more than a million barrels a day again from November 2022.

Russia had the largest export of diesel in March 2023 with 1.3 million barrels per day in the period covered by the data. Russian diesel exports amounted to 1.19 million barrels per day in April 2023, 875 thousand barrels per day in May 2023, and 1.27 million barrels per day in June 2023.

Russian diesel exports also found buyers, reaching higher volumes than before the war.

The EU ban on imports of various products derived from refinery oil, such as Russian diesel and liquid fuel (fuel-oil), and the application of maximum prices for these products began on February 5.

‘RUSSIA SHOWS ALL THE EFFORT’

Vortexa chief economist David Wech said Russia’s crude oil exports rose after the volume of the northern leg of the Drujba pipeline, which transports Russian oil to Poland via Belarus, was switched to export by sea at the end of the year. of 2022.

Stating that more Russian crude oil is exported as Kazakh origin, Wech said: “Technically, KEBCO (Kazakhstan Export Crude Oil Mixture) barrels are the same as Ural oil, that is, Russian oil. They have always been the same and only reflect the share of Kazakh oil in the Ural mix.

Pointing out that Russia’s diesel exports are much larger, Wech continued:

“Russia is doing everything possible to increase its exports of diesel, which it can sell at higher prices and where premium products are capped at $100 a barrel. Currently, diesel is the only product in Russia where it has captured a good group of buyers. For crude oil and other petroleum products, buyers are limited to a few alternatives, mainly China and India.

HAS DECIDED TO REDUCE OIL EXPORTS

Assessing Russia’s decision to voluntarily cut oil exports by 500,000 barrels in August, Wech recalled that Russia made a similar statement in March that oil production would be cut by 500,000 barrels per day.

Wech stated that “market sources do not fully implement this cut,” adding that “Russia’s crude oil exports decline seasonally during the summer months. This is usually due to increased internal demand and maintenance in the oil fields. So I think Russia is trying to sell this seasonal drop in exports as additional, voluntary cuts,” he said.

According to yesterday’s news from the Russian news agency TASS, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak announced that his country voluntarily decided to reduce oil exports by 500,000 barrels per day in August. (AA)