A realistic and logical figure, thinks transport economist Erik Verhoef of VU University in Amsterdam. “If you divide the revenue from fuel excise duty by the number of kilometers driven, that’s what you get.”
An important reason for the introduction of the road toll is the abolition of excise taxes on fuels if everyone starts to drive electrically. “Then you have to look at the substitute tax,” says Verhoef. Assuming an average distance traveled of 15,000 kilometers per year and a cost price of 8 cents per kilometre, this would cost the consumer about 1,200 euros a year. The plans are expected to be implemented in 2030.
Weakened economy
And this in an economy which, according to BNR internal economist Han de Jong, is weakening ‘on a very broad front’, including in other countries. Reason, according to De Jong, to take a recession scenario seriously. And that recession could last longer and be deeper than expected. De Jong sees some grim developments: Household consumption has all but come to a halt and consumer confidence has now dropped again for two consecutive months.
Production in industry is also falling sharply, the volume of investment in fixed assets was lower in April this year than last year. And the same goes for export. “It’s all doom and gloom in construction, because the number of building permits issued for homes during January through April was 20 percent lower this year than a year earlier.”
End of the problems for the German economy not yet in sight
Business confidence in the economy fell for the second consecutive month in June, as a shortage of skilled labor continues to hamper growth in the German economy. This is evident from a new report from the Ifo research institute, in which the weak reopening of the Chinese economy is seen as a major disruptive factor. The impending recession in the United States and continued interest rate hikes in the euro area are weighing on German business sentiment.
Germany’s business sentiment index for industry and trade fell from 91.5 to 88.5 in June, its lowest level since December last year. The sub-index, which reflects the mood of German entrepreneurs on the current situation, fell to 93.7 from 94.8 the previous month. Companies were also less optimistic about the future. For example, the index measuring expectations for the future fell to 83.6 from 88.3 in May.
The ECB raises interest rates in July
The European Central Bank (ECB) will further raise interest rates in the euro area in July to reduce inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde said this at the annual meeting of central bankers in Sintra, Portugal. Lagarde said interest rates were unlikely to peak any time soon. Which means as much as: There are more hikes to come.
Earlier this month, the ECB raised its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point. The goal of raising interest rates is to make loans more expensive and therefore less attractive, thereby reducing the demand for goods and services. The new interest rate decision will fall after the summer, on September 14 to be exact.
‘Government must stop stimulating’
Stimulating government policies, such as support for companies, works against monetary policy, says economics professor Casper de Vries of Erasmus University Rotterdam. ‘It is important for the government to maintain itself. Then the tide will turn and those wage increases will no longer be necessary.’
The increases in inflation and interest rates that are happening now are nothing new. In the late 1970s, the Netherlands was in a similar economic situation. Researchers from the Scientific Council for Government Policy Arthur van Riel and Casper de Vries wrote about it in the economist journal ESB.