Confidence in the real sector increased in June

The Central Bank announced the Business Trend Statistics for June and the Real Sector Confidence Index data.

According to data obtained by the results of the June 2023 Business Trend Survey by weighting and aggregating responses from 1,759 workplaces operating in the manufacturing industry, the seasonally adjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RKGE-MA) increased 0.6 points compared to the previous month.

In June 2023, the seasonally adjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RKGE-MA) increased 0.6 points compared to the previous month and went to 105.7.

The Real Sector Confidence Index (ICR), which is not seasonally adjusted, decreased 0.1 points compared to the previous month and went to 108.2.

If the index is above 100, the confidence of representatives of the real sector in economic activities has increased (optimistic), while an index below 100 indicates a declining outlook (pessimistic).

On the other hand, when the diffusion indices of the survey questions that make up the index are analysed, the valuations can be appreciated with respect to the total number of orders in the last three months, the general trend, total employment in the next three months and production volume. in the next three months have affected the index in an upward direction.

EVALUATIONS OF THE LAST 3 MONTHS

In the evaluations of the last three months, it was observed that the trend in favor of those who reported an increase in their production volume and number of national orders strengthened compared to the previous month, while the trend in favor of those who reported an increase in the amount of its export orders weakened slightly compared to the previous month.

Assessments regarding the current stock of finished goods, the amount of export orders in the next three months, the current total amount of orders, and fixed capital investment expenditures affected the index in a downward direction.

Assessments that current total orders are below seasonal normals and assessments that current finished goods inventories are above seasonal normals have been noted to have strengthened compared to the prior month.

ASSESSMENTS FOR THE NEXT 3 MONTHS

Assessments that current total orders are below seasonal normals and assessments that current finished goods inventories are above seasonal normals have been noted to have strengthened compared to the prior month.

It can be seen that the trend has strengthened in favor of those who expect an increase in average unit costs in the next three months and those who report an increase in the last three months. It has been observed that expectations of an increase in the sale price in the next three months have also strengthened.

At the end of the next twelve months, the annual expectation of the PPI decreased 2.5 points with respect to the previous month and went to 60.3 percent.