According to De Jong, it is a hypothesis as to why. He thinks last year’s sharply increased production plays a role in that. So major logistics disruptions cleared up and companies ramped up production to eliminate overdue orders.
Weak sectors
It doesn’t matter that De Jong sees weak sectors: chemicals show less than 20 percent, rubber and plastics less than 11.5 percent and base metals less than 18 percent. Without exception, these are energy-intensive sectors: De Jong had hoped that falling energy prices would have an effect on the production figures, but no.
“Turnover has indeed increased, but that is entirely due to higher prices”
Do you expect a wave of bankruptcies in that sector? “It could be,” says De Jong, who sees an upward trend going on for a few quarters. In the first quarter, 80 industrial companies went bankrupt, compared to 61 in the previous quarter. A historical comparison: during the 2012/2013 recession, more than 200 companies went bankrupt per quarter, so 80 is not a lot. However, De Jong expects a corona effect from companies that have remained artificially standing thanks to all the government’s support.
“Some of that will still collapse and if you combine that now with the drop in manufacturing, you can expect the bankruptcy figures to get considerably worse over the next few quarters.”
German industry
As Dutch industry is closely related to German industry, it is important to consider this aspect as well. After all, German industry is under pressure from disrupted supply chains and rising energy prices. According to De Jong, in recent years the Dutch industry has done a little better than the German one, while before it was very much in line.
De Jong points out the differences in the composition of the two industries: while Germany is mainly based on the automotive industry, the Dutch industry is more focused on semiconductor manufacturing. Germany also has to deal with the Energiewende, which means that energy prices in Germany have been much higher than in other countries for years. “And that affects the competitive position.”