The European Central Bank has already raised interest rates several times, it is not clear if this will stop soon. ‘Interest rates can go up to curb inflation, because inflation in the Netherlands is stubborn. Interest rates can also fall to mitigate or prevent a recession,’ says Siks.
In addition to interest rates, other factors also affect investor confidence in the Netherlands. The recovery of the Chinese economy is disappointing, the war in Ukraine continues and there is uncertainty about the US economy. “The question is whether the banking crisis in America is over or not,” Siks says.
“The question is whether the banking crisis in America is over or not”
According to Siks, the overall drop in investor confidence is manageable. Compared to the first quarter of last year, the AEX is up 750 points. “Even if we look at last month, we actually see that most of the indices have not moved that much from their position.”
Siks likens the current situation to an equilibrium on a scale where interest rates will determine how things play out. If interest rates keep going up, it’s not good for the stock market. Any hint of a decline is good for the market and investor confidence.