Industrial production in the Netherlands also fell by about two percent in January. BNR internal economist Han de Jong calls the situation “worrying”. It is also clear that German industry is currently doing much better than ours. “Industrial production is on the rise there. The evolution from one month to the next is clearly positive there too, and much less here. We also occasionally have quite bad months in between.’
However, the comparison with our eastern neighbors is not entirely valid, because German industry has come from a much lower point. Some recovery was therefore in line with expectations. “But if you look historically, you see that industrial production in our country has been keeping pace with German production for a long time,” says De Jong. ‘Things have changed in recent years, mainly due to the problems of German car manufacturers. Now things are a little better there. On the other hand, the chip industry, which has done very well for us in recent years, is now starting to lose momentum.’
Chemical industry
The chemical industry continues to perform very badly in the Netherlands, according to data from Statistics Netherlands. This has everything to do with the sharp fluctuations in energy costs we’ve experienced over the past year. “Production development between industries is always different, but now the differences are very big,” says De Jong. The transportation industry is the strongest at the moment with more than sixteen percent, benefiting from the same circumstances as the German automakers. The chemical industry is energy intensive and is clearly struggling with the consequences of high energy prices.’
“I find it hard to be wildly enthusiastic the rest of the year”
The peculiarity is that the chemical industry in Germany is already showing a timid recovery now that energy prices have fallen sharply again, while in the Netherlands this is not yet the case. “I don’t know exactly why, but it’s a little worrying.”
“When you put it all together, the industry is clearly under pressure,” says De Jong. ‘Household consumption is not going very well, construction is under pressure and house prices are falling. On the other hand, unemployment is fortunately low, exports continue to do reasonably well and inflation is declining. It has some advantages and some disadvantages. And when you add it up, I find it hard to be wildly excited about the rest of the year.’