The dream did not come true!
“Guaranteeing sustainable development and increasing economic and social well-being is possible with the strong ownership and effective implementation of the rule of law, democratization and the principles of good governance by the state.”
These words were included in the 11th Development Plan of the Republic of Turkey, in which the years 2018-2023 were discussed. The estimates on what kind of scenario we will face on the 100th anniversary of the Republic were written in the XI Development Plan prepared by the Department of Strategy and Budget of the Presidency.
As Turkey is struggling with one of the biggest economic crises in history, most of the predictions made for 2023 in the Development Plan adopted by the Turkish Grand National Assembly in July 2019 are seen to be a long way off:
INFLATION TARGET 5 PERCENT
– In the 11th Development Plan, it was written: “The policy framework based on price stability and financial stability in monetary policy will be maintained, and inflation will gradually converge to the 5 percent target under strengthened policy coordination ”. However, said policy was abandoned and with the new economic model implemented at the end of 2021, inflation exceeded 80 percent in 2022. Inflation, which in February was 55 percent due to the base effect, has turned its back on the narrow and medium income segment.
EXPECTED ANNUAL CURRENT LOSS GIVEN IN ONE MONTH
The current account deficit, which was $27.1 billion in 2018, was expected to narrow to $9.9 billion in 2023. In the plan, the projected current account deficit for all of 2023 was given as just one month. According to the balance of payments statistics of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, a record current account deficit of $9.8 billion was recorded in January. The 12-month current account deficit widened to $51.7 billion, the highest level since February 2014.
LARGEST MONTHLY BUDGET DEFICIT
By the end of the plan period, the goal was to bring the central government budget deficit to 2 percent of GDP. This rate is 2.4 percent as of February 2023. The central government budget posted a deficit of 170.5 billion lira in February. This was the largest monthly budget deficit on record. The total deficit in the first two months of 2023 reached 202.8 billion lira.
ECONOMIC SIZE AND PER CAPITA INCOME
The size of the Turkish economy, which had a volume of USD 784 billion in 2018, was expected to increase to USD 1.80 billion in 2023. This figure, which is USD 906 billion in 2022, is it is estimated to reach $980 billion by 2023. By the end of the plan period, it was intended to achieve a per capita income of $12,484. The year 2022 was completed at the level of 10 thousand 655 dollars. Forecasts for 2023 were revised to $11,304.
NOT PLANNED IN TOURISM
In the plan, the expectation of income from tourism for 2023 is 65 billion dollars, the number of visitors is 75 million, the average expense per visitor is 867 dollars and the average stay is 10 nights.
In the 2023 Presidential Annual Program, tourism targets were set and Turkey’s tourism revenue expectation for 2023 was 50 billion USD, the number of visitors was 58.8 million, the average spending per visitor was 850 dollars and the average stay was 11.9 nights.
UNEMPLOYMENT EXPECTATION
Unemployment was 11 percent in 2018. According to the 11th Development Plan, unemployment was expected to be 9.9 percent in 2023. According to the latest data announced by TUIK, this rate is 9.7 percent.
OBJECTIVES ESTABLISHED AT BES
In the 11th Development Plan, the goal was that the number of participants in the Individual Pension System (BES) would be 15.2 million and the amount of the fund would be 296 billion Turkish lira. According to data from March 2023, the number of voluntary and automatic participants was 14 million 812 thousand, while the total size of BES exceeded 450 billion lira.