When will the inflation rate be announced? What is the expected rate of inflation?
In February, the CPI rose, led by the monthly increase in the food, education and hotel and restaurant categories. The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced that field prices could not be compiled in Gaziantep, Malatya and Hatay regions due to the earthquake. It is not clear if it will participate in the CPI compilation in March due to the ongoing reconstruction work in the region after the disaster. The total cost of the earthquake is estimated to exceed $100 billion after the Kahramanmaraş-epicentered quake, which killed more than 50,000 people and directly affected nearly 15 million people, according to current figures.
WHEN WILL THE MARCH INFLATION NUMBERS BE ANNOUNCED?
The inflation rate for March will be announced on Monday, April 3.
HOW MUCH WILL THE INFLATION RATE WAIT?
In the Reuters survey of 14 respondents, annual inflation forecasts for March range from 50.1% to 52.8%. While the monthly inflation forecasts are between 2 percent and 3.85 percent, economists anticipate an increase in food prices, as well as in the areas of education, restaurant-hotel, and rent.
After rising to a 24-year high of 85.51% in October, the CPI declined due to the base effect. In February, it posted a limited decline from 57.7% to 55.18% due to the weaker base effect. Turkish Trade Union Confederation (Türk-İş), Ankara-calculated food inflation increased by 1.76% in March compared to the previous month; announced that the hunger limit was realized at 9,591 TL, above the current minimum wage.
Economists forecast that the base effect will wear off in the coming months with the change in food prices and rents after the earthquake. According to the median of the six economists who predicted the level of inflation before the elections in the survey, annual inflation is expected to be around 46.5%. In the February survey, the median was 45%. The government aims to combat inflation by turning the chronic current account deficit into a surplus by implementing an economic program that supports production and exports at low interest rates. The opposition, for its part, vows to return to conventional politics if it wins elections scheduled for this year.