The CPB calculates that household purchasing power will remain roughly unchanged this year and increase by about 2% next year. The economy is also growing a bit, this year by 1.6% and next year it should grow by 1.4%. Unemployment is also expected to rise to 4% next year. “Politically, of course, we don’t know at all what will happen, there is a lot of uncertainty,” says political journalist Sophie van Leeuwen. ‘But we’re escaping that recession and the winter has been warm, so all those doomsday scenarios don’t appear to be happening right now. For the moment, the signal is for growth’.
Poverty
But despite this moderately positive economic outlook, many households will therefore go into decline next year. About one million households are below the poverty line, up from around 800,000 this year. This has everything to do with the disappearance of temporary government support measures, such as the energy cap. Inflation will also remain elevated for now, according to the CPB. “These temporary measures will end at the end of this year, and then there will be severe poverty,” says Van Leeuwen. ‘It will be up to six percent of the population, the number of children living in poverty at even more than seven percent. So that has to do with politics and what you do with the bottom line of society.’
Van Leeuwen points out that this is still a fairly favorable scenario. ‘There’s also the scenario of a very cold winter in 2024. What if it comes earlier and the gas price goes up massively while everyone’s on a variable contract? Then you don’t get a positive picture of purchasing power, and this could still happen.’
Support measures
The government has since expressed concern about the CPB estimate and is seeking further supportive measures. Van Leeuwen ‘It is very clear that the lowest incomes, the people who already receive that 1300 euros, must be compensated. The question is still a bit like. Certainly measures will be taken, because otherwise you will still get that seven percent child poverty.
Whether extra support will also be provided to the middle class is, according to Van Leeuwen, the real question. There are currently no plans for this. ‘For example, extending the price cap generally costs billions of euros, and Kaag doesn’t feel like doing it. She says: collectively we will get just a little bit poorer. For ordinary citizens, the question is therefore how we will get through the winter of 2024”.