When will the inflation figures be released? What was the inflation expectation for February?

After the Kahramanmaraş-centered earthquake, early calculations by economists and economic officials show that the total cost of the earthquake will exceed $50 billion, with estimates as high as $100 billion. Due to the loss of production and increased demand caused by the earthquake, inflation is expected to decline later than expected, and it has become a general expectation that it will cause a 1-2 percentage point decline in growth this year.

WHEN WILL THE INFLATION RATES BE ANNOUNCED?

Inflation data for February will be announced on March 3 at 10:00.

WHAT IS THE EXPECTED INFLATION RATE?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain high, rising 3.4% in February on higher food prices, while the annual CPI is expected to fall slightly to 55.5%.

In the Reuters survey of 14 respondents, annual inflation forecasts for February range from 54% to 56.8%. While monthly inflation forecasts are between 2.3% and 4.2%, economists predict an increase in the areas of health, communication, education and restaurant-hotel, as well as in food prices.

While the median year-end estimates in the survey are 45%, the estimates range from 34% to 51.7%. In the pre-earthquake survey in January, the median year-end estimate was 41%. The CPI fell year-on-year in November after rising to a 24-year high of 85.51% in October following the currency crisis at the end of 2021. Annual inflation, which fell sharply to 64.27% in December due to the base effect, decreased to 57.7% in January. In the first quarter of the year, the decrease in annual inflation is forecast to continue with the contribution of the flat course in TL, the slowdown in the increase in world energy prices and the base effect, but the effect of the earthquake will continue to be observed. In the Reuters inflation analysis published in January, it was noted that the direction of the economy forecast inflation to be around 40% during the election period. Annual inflation in May is expected to be around 44%, according to the median of six economists who predicted pre-election inflation in the survey. The government aims to combat inflation by turning the chronic current account deficit into a surplus by implementing an economic program that supports production and exports at low interest rates. The opposition, for its part, vows to return to conventional politics if it wins elections scheduled for this year. While the Central Bank (CBRT) cut the policy rate by 50 basis points, which it called “measured” at its meeting last week, it said the monetary stance was “sufficient” to support the much-needed post-earthquake recovery. .