Confidence in the real sector weakened in February

The Central Bank (CBRT) announced the data of the Real Sector Confidence Index for February 2023.

Thus, in February, the seasonally adjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RKGE-MA) decreased 1.0 points with respect to the previous month and went to 102.4.

The Real Sector Confidence Index (ICR), which is not seasonally adjusted, increased 0.7 points with respect to the previous month and went to 102.4.

EVOLUTION IN THE LAST THREE MONTHS

Assessments regarding the total order amount in the last three months, the current total order amount, the current stock of finished goods, the total employment in the next three months, and the fixed capital investment expenditures affected the index in a upward direction.

The amount of export orders in the next three months, the volume of production in the next three months and assessments of the general trend affected the index in a downward direction.

In the evaluations of the last three months, it was observed that the trend in favor of those who reported an increase in their production volume and the number of orders in the domestic market turned in favor of those who reported a decrease. It was observed that the course in favor of those who reported a decrease in the amount of export orders weakened compared to the previous month.

Along with assessments that current total orders are below seasonal normals, assessments that current finished goods inventories are above seasonal normals weakened compared to the prior month.

WEAKEN EXPORT EXPECTATIONS

In the evaluations for the next three months, it was observed that the trend in favor of those who expect an increase in their production volume and volume of orders in the domestic market strengthened compared to the previous month, and the trend in favor of those who expect a increase in the number of export orders weakened compared to the previous month.

It was observed that the expectations of increased investment in fixed capital in the next twelve months and of employment in the next three months strengthened with respect to the previous month.

WEAKENED PRICE INCREASE EXPECTATION

It was observed that the trend weakened in favor of those who expected an increase in average unit costs in the next three months and those who reported an increase in the last three months. It was observed that the expectations of increase in the sale price in the next three months also weakened.

At the end of the next twelve months, the annual expectation of the PPI decreased 2.4 points with respect to the previous month and went to 74.8 percent.

pessimism has risen

While the rate of those who said they were more optimistic about the general direction of their industry compared to the previous month decreased to 5.9 percent, the rate of those who said they remained the same increased to 75.5 percent, and the rate of those who those who affirmed that they were more pessimistic amounted to 18.6 percent.