EBRD cuts Turkey’s growth forecast for 2023 due to earthquake

While the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) lowered its 2023 growth forecast from 3.5 percent, which was announced before the earthquakes centered on Kahramanmaraş on February 6, to 3 percent, disasters reduced Turkey’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). could reduce it up to 1%.

While two earthquakes of magnitude 7.7 and 7.6, with an epicenter in Kahramanmaraş, which occurred on Monday morning and at noon last week, caused great destruction in 10 provinces where approximately 13.4 million people lived, 35,418 people lost their lives according to the most recent information.

1 PERCENT IMPACT

In its monthly report, the EBRD forecast that construction activities, which are expected to increase in the coming months in Turkey, the country to which it provides the most financing, will alleviate the impact of destruction on infrastructure and supply chains, and He stated that the 1 percent contraction of GDP is a “reasonable estimate.”

“The earthquake largely affected agricultural areas and light industrial areas, so its impact on other sectors was limited,” EBRD chief economist Beata Javorcik told Reuters.

The EBRD stated that Turkey’s growing external financing needs and uncertainties related to the 2023 elections also create serious economic weakness for the country.

In the report, “TL has been depreciating faster than inflation since 2015, while the country’s exports have risen on the support of low US dollar costs.” (Reuters)