De Jong bases this conclusion on the IMF’s risk assessment. In his view, downside risks dominate on the upside. The course of the crown in China can be a risk, and of course the war in Ukraine. On the other hand, the reopening of the Chinese economy could also lead to a decline in inflation.
Less pessimism
And there’s more reason for cautious optimism, or ‘less pessimism’, says De Jong. For example, the IMF changed its forecast for global economic growth this year from 2.7 percent growth to 2.9 percent. This adjustment is easy to explain. “This is due to the sharp drop in energy prices, the end of the lockdowns in China, a decrease in problems in supply chains and also lower transport prices. So that adjustment isn’t that surprising.’