But to say the energy crisis is over is an overstatement, according to energy journalist Mark Beekhuis. “This is really premature,” he says. “Tariffs are back to pre-war levels, and in that respect one might think that the situation is more normal.”
This morning the price of gas per megawatt hour dropped below sixty euros, this afternoon it even reached 56 euros. “But it’s still not the thirty euros it has been for years,” continues Beekhuis. So it was already dawning before the war. But we can also say that if we look at the peak in August (380 euros per kWh, ed), the drop is quite linear’.
Governments
He points out that those prices were exploited as governments around the world decided to replenish their gas supplies at the same time. “These are rich organizations, so prices have skyrocketed.”
Governments have therefore bought gas to always have enough gas in case of possible cold fronts, but now that the cold is approaching, the price continues to fall steadily. Beekhuis: ‘In November and December it was quite cold for a while, and there was no further dip, but then it continued. But in the next few days it will be cold in the Netherlands and Western Europe as well, and now you see that the price is not rising. On the contrary, the euro has flown away».
Actions
While European equities are still holding up well, countries would do well to look to the future, according to Beekhuis. “You also have to realize that gas prices are still high,” Beekhuis continues. «Sixty euros is still double thirty euros. Then hopefully half of it goes out. I don’t know if it will happen again.’
In addition to full European stocks, Chinese stocks are also full, according to Beekhuis. “And there’s a vulnerability for next winter, because China has reopened everything,” he says. “We may have to compete for LNG next year, but we didn’t have to this year. Indeed; they had advanced LNG last year and we bought it with an interesting margin for the Chinese».
Beekhuis says we are still in a slump for this year and probably next year. “The European Commission hopes to be able to say that it will be completed by 2024.”