The so-called Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 48.6 in December from 46 in November. This means that activity has decreased, because growth is only visible above a score of 50. ‘A reading of 50 indicates a neutral reading, so no change in activity size. In December the score had already improved and the contraction is much less. The bottom is in sight,’ says Swart.
Create stock
According to Swart, many stocks are in the process of shrinking, resulting in a slightly positive trend. Many companies have built up a lot of inventory during the pandemic, the delivery of goods has taken a long time. Now the situation has improved on the container market, for example, and financing inventories has become more expensive due to higher interest rates.”
Incidentally, the number of new orders is still declining. «But to a much lesser extent than in November. The demand for capital goods, such as machines, has even increased slightly again,’ concludes ABN Amro.
Swart points out that most industrial entrepreneurs have positive expectations for 2023, with the exception of the most energy-intensive sectors. For example, entrepreneurs expect to produce more this year than last year. “Employment also grew at fastest pace since August.”
United States
Geopolitical tensions still play a role, thinks Swart. “It will be an exciting year given the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis.” Even the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States, which stimulates green industry with a 350 billion euro government subsidy, is causing tension. ‘If Europe is to remain competitive with the US, European countries may also need to come up with a support package, but that will cost a lot of money. It will be exciting.’
In addition, there is also the chip war between the US and China, which could particularly affect the Netherlands. America has imposed sanctions on China on semiconductors. And the ASML in particular plays an important role here.’