‘Investors follow what is going up in Borsa Istanbul’

The BIST 100 index on Borsa Istanbul has achieved a rate of return of approximately 170 percent since the beginning of the year. The rate of increase in the last year is 147%.

In today’s trading, the BIST 100 index increased its rise over 4.20 percent during the day, taking its highest level to 5,215 points.

The increase observed in the banking index since the beginning of the year has reached 181 percent, while the rate of return of the last year is at the level of 166 percent. While the industrial index’s return has been 142 percent from the start of the year to today, it has brought its investors 126 percent in the past one-year period.

The return of the transportation index since the beginning of the year is 493 percent, well above the banking and industrial indexes. The latest one-year increase in the transportation index has reached 454 percent.

The point that market experts, who assessed the reasons for this stock market rally to Sozcu.com.tr, drew common attention is that Borsa Istanbul has no choice among investment instruments due to the high inflation that arose after the new economy. model.

‘MONEY FROM KKM TO EXCHANGE’

Allbatross holding fund manager Gökhan Uskuay stressed that there is no alternative but the stock market as exchange rates are dormant and interest rates are very low.

“The Protected Deposit of Currency (KKM) previously offered a yield. With the strengthening of the Central Bank’s reserves and the dissolution of the Foreign Currency Deposit Accounts, the money in KKM began to flow to the stock market,” Uskuay said, noting that companies began selling foreign currency from November and December, and The fact that both institutional and individual investors flocked to the stock market drew attention.

Expressing that there is no distinction between the sector and the indices in this period, Uskuay said that new investors follow stocks that are going up. Uskuay said: “The balance and selectivity are lost, where so many new investors enter, we play by their rules. Anything that goes up, they go after it. There is no such dynamic as the industry, ”he said.

‘THE ONLY THING THAT CAN COMPETE WITH THE STOCK MARKET IS THE CURRENCY JUMP’

Making assessments of the continuity and sustainability of this rise in the stock market, Uskuay pointed to the current economic model. Uskuay said: “The new economic structure is unsustainable, but the increase in CBRT reserves in the short term and the continuation of hot money that came with the Russia-Ukraine war make this model work. The only thing that will disturb the dynamics of the stock market is the jump in the exchange rate. As soon as the exchange rate and interest balance deteriorate, there will be competitors in the stock market,” he said.

Likewise, emphasizing the Wealth Fund on today’s rise in the stock market, Uskuay continued his words as follows: “There is an inflow of money, but I don’t know the reason. When one of the Wealth Fund shares is purchased, we see high premiums on the others. Investors are going after what is going up,” he said.

WILL WE RETURN TO NORMALITY IN ECONOMIC POLICIES?

Soner Kuru, Deputy General Manager of Marbaş Investments, said that rising inflation and the lack of return alternatives were the main factors behind the rise in the stock market. Expressing that as of today, the losses seen last week have been offset, Kuru noted the post-election economic policies regarding the continuation of the increase.

Adding that there may be fluctuations in both directions for the future, Kuru said, “There are no changes to the composition. We can say that services, retail, conglomerates, aviation and energy will come to the fore in these sectors.”

Kuru said: “Risk appetite continues. The stock market tries to list the next quarter or two. So there is a choice period. The question to ask here is will low interest rates be sustainable, will we return to normal economic policies? If the low interest rate continues, the stock market will continue to rise,” he said.

Noting that there is some entry into the stock market from currency-protected deposit accounts, Kuru continued his words as follows: “There is no moving wolf. There have been some hacks on KKM accounts recently. There is also an increase in the number of new accounts. There is a transition of crypto money investors to Borsa Istanbul in this period.

‘LOCAL INVESTOR PUT HIS MONEY IN THE STOCK EXCHANGE’

Ata’s investment strategist Batuhan Özşahin also proved that there is no other alternative for TL’s investments in the Borsa Istanbul rally.

Stating that there has been a negative real interest rate factor of up to 70 percent for a long time, Özşahin said: “Before you could be protected with deposits in inflationary environments. When this is no longer the case, savings are drastically eroded. People started asking what to do. The money went to different instruments. Domestic investors are putting their money here seriously,” he said.

Noting that as foreign investors exited after 2020, Özşahin said: “Domestic investors also create various bubbles, but foreign exits caused severe declines in the earlier periods. Currently, the rate of foreigners in the stock market is below 30 percent, foreigners see the macro climate in Turkey as very fragile, domestic investors have taken their place.

‘WE HAVE A SERIOUS INCOME OF MONEY, WHOEVER HEARS IS COMING’

Drawing attention to the increase in the broad-based money supply since 2018 as another factor in the rise of the stock market, Özşahin said: “Many people have become rich. Domestic investors also turned to the stock market to avoid inflation. The number of investors has exceeded 3.5 million people, but people must consciously approach them.”

Özşahin, regarding the statements that KKM accounts entered the stock market, said: “As KKM’s income began to decline, its volume decreased, but we cannot say that there is an exit from there, an entry here. It is not something that can be measured. There is a significant inflow of money, but I don’t know if it’s from KKM or from a deposit. People channel their savings here. There will be a supply-ask correction, but we haven’t seen a serious correction despite the supply.”