Vrieselaar speaks of “impressive recovery growth” after the corona pandemic for the first months of this year. ‘In the first half of the year we saw a very rapid recovery from corona, but also more than recovery. Because the economy is more than five percent larger than before the corona crisis. We only saw a slight contraction in the economy in the third quarter, we expect the economy to take a step back in the fourth quarter as well.’
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No space
According to Vrieselaar, the Dutch economy is not growing any further because there is simply no more room for it. ‘We don’t have much upward space, there is a shortage of personnel and a shortage of materials. There is no room for growth.’ But the decline in consumer spending is also making itself felt: high prices and economic uncertainties. “We expect families to tighten their purse strings.”
Incidentally, this factor is somewhat offset by the government, which introduces a price cap and energy support in November and December. “On the one hand you see that the economy would contract if allowed to run its course, but the government wants to stimulate, which works against each other.” Vrieselaar calls it bungling: neither growth nor shrinkage.
Under-exhaustion
It is true that the government wants to invest a lot and encourage it, on the one hand there is no room for this, on the other hand it can have a negative effect on the business community. There is underspending: the government may invest less than desired because the staffing shortage is too great. On the other hand, if the government is too successful at investing and stimulating, “then it could get in the way of companies that are successful at that too.” “Government is increasingly fishing in the same pond as companies,” concludes Vrieselaar.